BIS: AI may face four long-term development paths, with insufficient demand potentially becoming a key constraint on growth

BlockBeats News, June 29. According to the latest research published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), AI is expected to break through the traditional technological revolution model of merely increasing labor productivity, and, by enhancing knowledge creation capabilities, alter the path of long-term economic growth.

The research suggests that AI may evolve into four future scenarios: maintaining the status quo, limited productivity improvement, demand bottlenecks, and transformative AI. In particular, if AI can continuously improve its own capabilities, both economic growth rates and natural interest rates are expected to be significantly higher than historical levels.

However, AI development may not accelerate without limit. As automation continues to replace labor, the share of labor income may decline, and consumer demand may struggle to keep up with the steadily expanding production capacity. If enterprises believe future market demand will be insufficient, they may reduce ongoing investment in AI innovation and automation, leading technological progress to be constrained by demand rather than technology itself.

The BIS believes that under this "demand bottleneck" scenario, insufficient end-user demand will become the main constraint on long-term economic growth, and the long-term impact of AI will still depend on multiple factors such as technological breakthroughs, income distribution, and the evolution of demand.