EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Gains above 184.00, but bearish technical bias persists below 100-day SMA

The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 184.20 during the early European session on Monday. However, the potential upside for the cross might be limited as traders are nervous about a fragile US-Iran ceasefire. 

The US and Iran traded fresh barbs over the weekend before they agreed to halt attacks and meet in Qatar on Tuesday. Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks could weigh on the riskier assets, such as the Euro (EUR) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). 

Furthermore, mounting fears of Japanese market intervention could underpin the JPY. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said last week that officials will take appropriate action against the foreign exchange moves if needed.

The European Central Bank's (ECB) annual forum this week will be closely watched as traders continue to monitor evolving central bank policies amid lower oil prices and stock market volatility. ECB President Christine Lagarde will open the forum on Monday. Any hawkish remarks from policymakers could help limit the EUR’s losses in the near term. 

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a bearish near-term bias as the pair holds beneath the 100-day moving average and the Bollinger middle band. Price action remains capped by this clustered dynamic resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 42.65 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at fading bullish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the lower Bollinger band around 183.55, which marks the first notable demand zone that could slow the current pullback. A clear break below this band would likely expose deeper corrective territory, while on the topside, a daily close back above the 100-day moving average at 184.55 would be needed to ease immediate pressure and open the way toward the Bollinger middle band near 184.95 and, later, the upper band at 186.35.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)