June 29 Financial Morning Report: Interest Rate Hike Expectations Eased, Gold Welcomes Boost, Iran's "30-Day Control" Statement in the Strait Supports Oil Prices, U.S.-Iran Doha Meeting Imminent

　　

　　In the Asian session on Monday (June 29, UTC+8),

was trading near $4,069/oz, mainly boosted by a slight easing in rate hike expectations and a pullback in the US dollar from recent highs;

　　Key things to watch today

　　Stock markets

　　US stocks

index fell slightly by 0.05% last Friday to 7,353.95 points, Nasdaq fell 0.24% to 25,297.62, and the index slipped 0.09% to 51,876.11. Over the past week, dropped a total 2.05%, Nasdaq plunged 4.7%, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index slumped 5.3% in a single day with a weekly loss of 7.9%, its worst week since early April. This was mainly due to investor concerns over whether the massive capital expenditure on AI data centers could be quickly recouped, while rumors that OpenAI is considering postponing its IPO to next year further weighed on AI-related risk appetite.

　　Although Apple rebounded 3.1% after a sell-off triggered by price hikes, chip stocks were generally under pressure. ON Semiconductor plummeted nearly 24% on its acquisition deal with Synaptics, with the latter also dropping 3.7%. Health care was a strong outperformer, as Moderna soared nearly 13% to a 2024 high after an investor event.

　　

　　On the macro front, the US May inflation rate rose above 4%, mainly due to higher energy prices, keeping the possibility of further Fed hikes alive. The price hikes from Apple were also seen as a new inflationary signal. Although Middle East tensions later eased, leading oil prices to fall, and June consumer confidence rebounded from historic lows, household concerns over the cost of living remained. Traders expect at least one 25 bps Fed hike this year, with the probability of another hike close to 27%.

　　Gold Market

　　

　　However, after hitting a more than seven-month low earlier last week, gold still posted a 2.1% weekly loss, extending its fourth straight week of declines as higher rates and tighter monetary policy continued to erode the appeal of non-yielding assets.

　　Other precious metals also rebounded in sync, with

, platinum, and palladium up 2.2%, 2%, and 2.5% respectively, though all three closed lower on the week. On the physical demand side, the price pullback drove Indian gold to a premium for the first time in one and a half months.

　　Oil Market

　　

closed down 1.9% at $73.47/bbl,

　　Meanwhile, oil major Saudi Aramco resumed crude loading operations at the Ras Tanura terminal last Friday after nearly four months offline. Shipping data showed several VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) had begun loading, and last week crude transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz rose to its highest since the US-Israel-Iran conflict escalation in late February, although still well below pre-war daily levels overall.

　　Forex Market

　　

still rose on the week, marking the biggest monthly gain since July last year; on the day, the dipped 0.09% to 101.36, rose 0.18% to 1.1389, gained 0.09% to 1.3203, while

　　

　　Global News

　　US and Iran agree to cease airstrikes, to meet in Doha on Tuesday to salvage crumbling ceasefire

　　Senior US officials said the US and Iran have agreed to halt mutual attacks and plan talks in Doha on Tuesday to resolve the Strait of Hormuz dispute, aiming to solidify a ceasefire already showing cracks just 11 days after taking effect. A US official told media both sides decided to “halt all military actions,” while another said that during technical talks "vessels can transit freely." Continued attacks in recent days have put the ceasefire in jeopardy, with disputes stemming from differing interpretations of the strait clauses in the memorandum of understanding. Under the MOU, Iran pledged to ensure the safe passage of merchant ships, while the US would lift its blockade on Iranian ports. Last week, Swiss-brokered talks saw both sides agree to set up a coordination hotline between US forces and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but by Saturday the hotline was still inactive, and Iran has again stated that ships require coordinated passage. Meetings originally scheduled for Switzerland were moved to Doha amid rising tensions, refocusing discussions on the Strait of Hormuz. US technical team chief Nick Stewart is expected to attend. The White House has yet to comment.

　　US military strikes Iranian targets again, in response to tanker drone attack

　　On June 27, US Central Command carried out further strikes on multiple Iranian targets after previously responding to Iran's attack on the M/V EverLovely cargo vessel. Although Iran had the opportunity to honor the ceasefire agreement, its forces launched a one-way drone attack at 4:30 a.m. (US Eastern time) on June 28, striking the Panama-flagged M/T Kiku oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, which was carrying over 2 million barrels of oil and was destroyed. In response, US fighter jets that day hit Iranian military surveillance facilities, communication systems, air defense sites, UAV storage, and mining capabilities. Merchant ship transit through the strait continues, with US forces on high alert and at the ready.

　　Iranian FM: Strait of Hormuz to be fully controlled by Iran for next 30 days, intervention will delay reopening

　　Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated during a visit to Iraq that the Strait of Hormuz would be completely controlled by Iran in the next 30 days, adding that the latest war results and the progress of the US-Iran MOU had been briefed to the Iraqi FM. He said Iran would fully supervise and manage the strait during this period, and once all obstacles are cleared, full shipping capacity would resume—precisely the goal Iran is working towards. Araghchi stressed that this responsibility rests with Iran alone, as clearly stipulated in the MOU, and that any external interference or unilateral action would worsen the situation and delay the reopening.

　　Trump threatens Iran may “cease to exist”

　　On June 27 local time, US President Trump posted on social media: “US warplanes have just struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites plus coastal radar stations, as they again violated the ceasefire agreement. They may never learn! There will come a time when we stop showing restraint and are forced to finish what we successfully started by military means. If it comes to that, the Islamic Republic of Iran will cease to exist!” (CCTV International News)

　　Trump says US military hit Iranian missile and drone storage facilities

　　US President Trump stated on June 27 local time that US forces had just struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites as well as coastal radar installations, after Iran again violated the ceasefire. Trump also threatened: “There will come a time when we stop showing restraint and are forced to finish what we successfully started by military means. If it comes to that, the Islamic Republic of Iran will cease to exist!” US CENTCOM said on social media that it had carried out a new round of strikes against multiple Iranian targets that day, directly in response to "Iran's continued actions against merchant shipping.” US warplanes hit Iranian military surveillance facilities, communication systems, air defense positions, UAV storage, and mining capability targets. (CCTV News)

　　32 World Cup teams set, AI prediction scores announced: Tencent Hunyuan leads at 29/32

　　On June 28, the full list of 32 World Cup finalists was set, and prediction scores from 12 AI models were officially announced. Tencent Hunyuan led with a 29/32 accuracy rate; MiniMax and iFlytek Spark both scored 28/32, with DeepSeek, Zhipu, and Lenovo Tianxi AI at 27/32. Generally, all AIs agreed on traditional powerhouses and mainstream qualifiers, with differences mainly arising from fringe qualifiers (such as Bosnia, Cape Verde, Congo-Kinshasa, Ghana) and eliminated teams like Iran, South Korea, and Uruguay.

　　South Korea has over two stock accounts per capita, as foreign investors sell and retail leverage buyers step in

　　The South Korean stock market has broken records numerous times lately, with the KOSPI almost doubling this year. Yet, on June 26, KOSPI plunged over 8% intraday, triggering a circuit breaker for the second time this week. In just one week, the Korean market has experienced two roller-coaster swings, drawing global attention. Data shows a high share of retail trading. By June 24, Korea's domestic stock trading accounts totaled 108.77 million—versus a population of just over 50 million—meaning more than two stock accounts per person, with large inflows via high-leverage ETFs. Last week, the Fed’s hawkish turn directly weighed on the highly valued tech sector. According to a JPMorgan report, about $95 billion of foreign capital has left Korean stocks this year. Meanwhile, retail investors' net buying totaled around $80 billion year to date, becoming the main market stabilizer. This "foreign sell, retail leverage in" mode means volatility can easily trigger forced liquidations and partially impair price-setting. (CCTV Finance)

　　China News

　　Another major milestone! Three world-class high-performance carbon fiber production lines come online together

　　On June 28, China National Building Material Group announced that three world-class high-performance carbon fiber production lines at Zhongfu Shenying’s Lianyungang base were simultaneously launched, covering the three mainstream carbon fiber categories: general, high-strength, and high-modulus fiber. This marks a major milestone in China’s high-quality development of the carbon fiber sector. Each global benchmark line boasts distinct advantages: the 5,000-ton large-tow line, based on an innovative dry-jet wet spinning tech, upgrades wind power-dedicated products, significantly cuts costs and boosts large-scale manufacturing; the world’s first 4m-wide, kiloton-class T1100 line delivers a leap in capacity, fully adapting to aviation, aerospace, and low-altitude craft; and the 600-ton/year high-modulus line serves high-end equipment and 3C electronics. The commissioning of these three top-tier lines together fills the domestic gap in high-end scale capacity, pushes the industry out of low-level volume competition, and drives transformation towards higher-end and more technological segments. (CCTV News)

　　C909 marks ten years of commercial operation, with 186 aircraft delivered, accounting for 70% of China’s regional fleet

　　Today (June 28), COMAC announced that its domestically developed commercial aircraft C909 has been in commercial service for ten years, with 186 planes delivered, making up 70% of China’s regional fleet. Over a decade of operations, the C909 has become the main model in the country’s regional aviation market. (CCTV News)

Editor: Zhu Henan