Silver Price Forecast: Weak NFP pushes XAG/USD to the top of its weekly range

Silver (XAG/USD) climbs to the top of its weekly trading range on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) slides to a two-week low after US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data surprised to the downside. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $61.15, up nearly 3.50% on the day.

Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed the US economy added just 57K jobs in June, well below market expectations of 110K. Meanwhile, May's payrolls were revised down to 129K from the previously reported 172K.

Traders quickly scaled back expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike at its September policy meeting, with the probability of a rate increase falling to 51% from 63% before the data release, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.74, retreating from an intraday high of 101.43.

However, the US Dollar's downside may remain limited as the weak employment report did little to change the Fed's hawkish stance. With inflation still running well above the central bank's 2% target, markets continue to expect the Fed could raise interest rates later this year, which could limit a stronger recovery in XAG/USD.

Technical Analysis:

On the daily chart, XAG/USD retains a bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $69 and the 100-day SMA at $75.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 39 keeps momentum in mildly negative territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly below zero with a shallow negative reading, hinting at weak downside pressure rather than a decisive bearish acceleration.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at $61.50, with the 200-day SMA at $69.88 and the 100-day SMA at $75.08 reinforcing a broader ceiling for any recovery attempts.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the horizontal level of $55.50, where a decisive break could trigger further losses.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)