After 30 minutes of cheers, the world falls into contemplation

Source: Wall Street Intelligence Circle

After the non-farm payroll data was released:

- The US dollar index saw its largest intraday decline in two months, wiping out all gains made since June 19th in just one day;

- Gold surged nearly $80 within just 20 minutes;

- Meanwhile, oil prices and US stock futures both rose as well.

Many traders couldn’t believe what they were seeing—the market volatility was so intense. It had been a long time since economic data triggered such dramatic swings. This echoes Waller’s original intention: to restore the market to its natural state, rather than tame it into an obedient kitten.

Although the data was unexpected, one thing remains unchanged—it continues the Trump second-term style: “Every major data release benefits the market.”

This non-farm payroll report carries two meanings:

· First: Reduced risk of rate hikes.

· Second: Weaker employment momentum. Only 57,000 new jobs were added, and previous data for the past two months was revised down by 74,000. This is not a “just right” figure—it’s clearly weak. After the initial 20 minutes, the question the market will inevitably ask is: Is the US economy starting to slow down?

Thirty minutes after the data release, market volatility slowed noticeably, and attention turned to whether US stocks could maintain their gains. If US stocks close higher, it means the market interprets non-farm data as “rate hike risks removed.” If there’s an intraday spike followed by a pullback, it shows that concerns are shifting to “weak employment may impact profits.” It’s especially important to watch Nasdaq and semiconductors. If AI stocks remain strong, it means the market still believes in the main profit-driven trend; if AI stocks surge and then fall, it means investors are shifting concern from rates to growth worries.

This data isn’t an “all-around positive,” but rather a “removal of rate hike fears.” It pulled the market out of one risk: Will the Fed raise rates soon? But it pushed the market into another question: Is the US economy starting to weaken?

The non-farm payroll data gave the market a sweet treat, but the back of the candy wrapper reads: Beware of growth.