Short-term disturbances do not change long-term growth! Boeing (BA.US) expects that 44,000 new aircraft will be needed globally by 2045, with the aviation services market reaching $4.9 trillion

According to The Smart Finance APP, Boeing (BA.US) released its outlook report last Friday stating that short-term disruptions affecting the aviation industry will have limited impact on long-term growth. The company expects that over the next two decades, global airlines and cargo operators will need nearly 44,000 new commercial aircraft, with passenger traffic set to continue expanding.

This outlook, released ahead of this week's Farnborough International Airshow, predicts that by 2045, the global commercial fleet will have grown by nearly 80% to more than 50,000 aircraft. Boeing also forecasts that the commercial aviation services market will reach $4.9 trillion over the same period, with the industry needing more than 2.4 million new pilots, maintenance technicians, and cabin crew members.

For investors, this forecast indicates that despite short-term disruptions such as geopolitical tensions and supply chain constraints, aircraft manufacturers, engine makers, suppliers, maintenance service providers, and aviation training companies can still benefit from sustained long-term demand. The Farnborough Airshow has traditionally been a key platform for announcing aircraft orders and industry outlooks, with its forecasts often setting the tone for market expectations in the aerospace sector.

Boeing stated that by 2045, global passenger traffic is expected to grow at a rate of about 4% annually, doubling during the period—as airlines expand their route networks and replace older models with more fuel-efficient new aircraft to achieve growth. It is expected that about half of new aircraft deliveries will be for replacing existing aircraft rather than purely for growth demands.

The company anticipates demand for 43,625 new aircraft between 2026 and 2045, with single-aisle jets dominating, accounting for more than three-quarters of expected deliveries. According to Boeing, by 2045, the global single-aisle fleet will nearly double to over 36,000 aircraft, while the global wide-body fleet will exceed 8,000 aircraft.

Boeing stated that recent geopolitical tensions (including those in the Middle East) have altered travel patterns but have not significantly reduced overall demand. Destinations and routes for passengers have shifted, while short-haul leisure travel remains the strongest market segment. Over the longer cycle, the company expects growing tourism, international trade, and enhanced global connectivity to continue supporting the expansion of passenger traffic.

The outlook also highlights the evolution of airline business models. Boeing noted that since 2015, airlines have added nearly 5,500 new airport pairs, expanding their route networks by nearly 30%. In affluent markets such as North America and Northeast Asia, premium travel continues to grow, while low-cost carriers are rapidly expanding in emerging regions such as Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe.

By 2045, the low-cost carrier fleet is projected to grow at an annual rate of nearly 4%, compared to about 3% for traditional network carriers.

Despite persistent geopolitical disruptions, the cargo market is also expected to expand. Boeing forecasts that by 2045, air cargo volume will grow at an annual rate of around 3.7%, driven by high-value goods, perishable items, supply chain resilience, and cross-border e-commerce. The company anticipates a need for more than 2,900 newly built and converted freighters over the next two decades.

In addition to aircraft production, Boeing estimates that airlines will spend approximately $4.9 trillion over the next 20 years on maintenance, repair, training, digital services, and other support activities.

The company projects that the global aviation industry will need about 674,000 new pilots, 728,000 maintenance technicians, and just over one million cabin crew members over the next two decades. About two-thirds of these will replace retirees, while the remainder will support fleet expansion.