Analyst's View on Gold Price | With the $4,000 Mark, Which Direction Will Gold Price Choose?
Independent Analyst
On the upside, resistance is at $4,094/oz. If prices effectively break through $4,094/oz, resistance shifts to $4,171/oz, and will still rely on U.S. economic data to confirm.
Independent Analyst
Fed Chair Waller emphasized in his testimony to Congress that the Fed has zero tolerance for persistently high inflation, further signaling a hawkish stance. At the same time, U.S. June inflation data remained moderate; June retail sales grew 0.2% month-on-month, initial jobless claims last week fell to 208,000, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index soared to 41.4. The data has weakened market expectations for a Fed rate cut in July.
Currently, there is an approximately 90% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its July 29 meeting. Overall, the resilience of the U.S. economy remains, especially with the prosperity brought by recent AI industry growth still creating spillover effects. The Fed is likely to keep rates steady in the medium to short term, and worries about rate hikes have clearly subsided.
Certified Senior Gold Investment Analyst
In terms of fundamental news, ongoing Middle East conflicts are not only directly increasing global energy and supply chain uncertainty but further intensifying inflation concerns in the market, which also strengthens expectations for the Fed to maintain high interest rates or even resume rate hikes in subsequent policy meetings.
Amid rising geopolitical risks and tight macro policies, gold, which has traditionally been a core safe-haven asset, has not staged the strong rally expected by the market, but instead is showing obvious pressure, with growing disagreements in the bull-bear tug-of-war.
Zhaojin Refining
Looking ahead, the Middle East situation is escalating again, oil prices are soaring, and U.S. inflation data is expected to rise once more. Market pricing of the Fed maintaining high rates is further solidified, making it unlikely for international gold's short-term weakness to fundamentally reverse. There is buying support under the $4,000/oz mark, thus the downside is limited. Overall, the high volatility and broad fluctuations are likely to continue, with bull-bear battles becoming the norm and a clear trend difficult to establish in the short term.
Editor | Jiao Yang Layout | Jiao Yang Visuals | Zhang Zongwei
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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