LME and Shanghai copper prices diverge: Strong Chinese demand and supply concerns push Shanghai copper prices to a seven-week high

智通财经2026/07/22 04:41

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During Wednesday's Asian trading session, copper prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose to a seven-week high. The main contract once hit 106,760 yuan/ton (about 15,672 USD/ton), the highest since June 3, and finally closed up 1.21% at 106,100 yuan/ton. Driven by supply concerns and continued strong demand from China, Shanghai copper led the gains among base metals.
On the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper retreated 0.5% to 13,834 USD/ton after hitting a six-week high on Tuesday. The widening spread between the two markets reflects diverging expectations for US and Chinese demand prospects.
According to the chief analyst at CRU, as the US has yet to decide whether to impose tariffs on refined copper, import arbitrage opportunities between Chicago Mercantile Exchange and London Metal Exchange are prompting traders to continue channeling metals into the US market. Copper inventories in both LME-registered warehouses and Shanghai-monitored warehouses continue to decline, further evidencing supply tightening.
China's import demand remains robust. The Yangshan copper premium index, which measures spot demand, rose to 109 USD/ton on Tuesday, reaching its highest since December 2023. Analysts indicated that smelter maintenance and shipping congestion caused by the recent typhoon have affected supply, while tight scrap copper supply has also boosted demand for refined cathode copper.
On the macro front, escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed up oil prices, and some economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this year. A stronger US Dollar Index has somewhat dampened purchasing interest from other currency holders, but overall it has not changed the relatively bullish trend in the copper market.
For other base metals, LME aluminum, zinc, and nickel edged up, lead was flat, and tin rose slightly. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, price movements diverged: aluminum, zinc, and nickel gained, lead declined, and tin edged higher.

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LME and Shanghai copper prices diverge: Strong Chinese demand and supply concerns push Shanghai copper prices to a seven-week high

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