The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, and the probability of maintaining rates unchanged in September is 18.5%.
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According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 36.3%; the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged until September is 18.5%, with the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike at 55.7%, and a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike at 25.8%. AI interpretation: market expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged in the short term dominate, reflecting that current monetary policy has entered a watchful window. The pricing of the rate path shows heightened vigilance toward inflation stickiness, with rate hike expectations rising significantly in September. This pricing structure directly suppresses premature hopes for an easing policy and strengthens the market consensus on a prolonged high interest rate environment. Investors are reassessing the endpoint of the tightening cycle, and capital flows are tilting towards defensive assets accordingly.
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