Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0650 GMT - The dollar eases slightly amid uncertainty over the U.S.-Iran conflict and following renewed calls for interest-rate cuts from President Trump. Trump told Axios Monday that he paused strikes on Iran to allow for negotiations but could return to strong military action if talks fail. Trump separately called for lower rates again during a session with reporters on Air Force One and said Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will "do the right thing." The Fed is expected to keep rates steady Wednesday. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.493 after reaching a four-week high of 101.573 overnight. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0600 GMT - The U.S. Treasury is expected to boost its near-term borrowing projection when it releases its financing estimates next week but leave coupon auction sizes unchanged, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a note. They look for marketable borrowing of $827 billion for the third quarter versus $671 billion projected at the May refunding meeting, the analysts say. Nominal coupon auction and inflation-protected Treasurys--or TIPS--auction sizes are expected to be left unchanged this quarter, implying net bill supply of $534 billion for 3Q, the analysts say. Goldman Sachs affirms its expectations that the Treasury will begin increasing coupon auction sizes from May 2027, with eventual auction-size increases limited to two- to seven-year maturities. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0558 GMT - The removal of a measure to cool Singapore's property sector is unlikely to significantly affect the resale market,says Realion's Christine Sun in a note. Singapore's ministry of national development today announced that private residential property owners will no longer need to wait 15 months after selling their private properties before they can purchase nonsubsidized public housing resale flats. This could spur deals for bigger resale flats and boost the number of million-Singapore-dollar resale transactions, as more private home buyers could seek to "downgrade" to public housing, says Sun. Still, she expects these higher prices to be contained in this specific housing segment. Ample overall housing supply will continue to keep price growth stable and measured in coming years, she adds. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0553 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields decline in Asian trade as oil prices also move lower, both extending Monday's moves. Higher demand for U.S. Treasurys--which causes prices to rise and yields to fall--and the decline in oil prices come as U.S.-Iran diplomacy aimed at a short-term solution in the Middle East war has accelerated. The reaction in the bond market to declining oil prices has so far been modest but given the uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East, "the bond market seems to be careful in 'correcting' too much," Danske Bank's Joel Rossier says in a note. The two-year Treasury yield falls 1.7 basis points to 4.305%, while the 10-year yield declines 1.1 basis points to 4.630%, according to Tradeweb data. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0535 GMT - Investors could consider overweight duration exposure towards the front end of the U.S. Treasury curve, Insight Investment's Brendan Murphy says in a note. The asset manager expects the Fed to be on hold for a considerable period and the next eventual rate move may actually be a cut, the head of fixed income, North America, says. "It may therefore be a good time to consider fixed income allocations, including overweight duration exposure toward the front of the curve." A more prolonged war with Iran raises uncertainty, however, and there may be dissenters voting for hikes on Wednesday. The Fed has consistently concluded that 'looking through' energy shocks is its best option, unless second round effects become entrenched and / or longer-dated inflation expectations become unanchored, Murphy says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0526 GMT - For his second monetary policy committee meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh won't challenge the consensus, Natixis Investment Managers' Mabrouk Chetouane says in a note. Warsh "will not give in to the temptation to raise the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points, even though, at this stage, bringing inflation back to target by the end of the year is virtually out of reach," the head of global market strategy says. "Furthermore, the Fed chair will not want to risk jeopardizing the slow but steady improvement in the labor market--which has been evident for several weeks--by tightening monetary conditions." Analysts widely expect the Fed to stay on hold Wednesday but money markets price in a 38% probability of a hike, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0519 GMT - The pressure on Federal Reserve policymakers to tighten policy has increased, as U.S. inflation is still significantly above target, and the economy and the labor market remain resilient, Columbia Threadneedle Investments' Anthony Willis says in a note. "However, policymakers may be willing to look through the recent spike in oil prices, until the inflationary implications become clearer." Nevertheless, the broader direction of travel is evident: the Fed is adopting a more hawkish stance under Warsh's leadership, the senior economist says. Markets are currently pricing in a 38% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates on Wednesday, and are fully pricing in a rate hike in September, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0517 GMT - Market pricing of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase on Wednesday is rising, according to LSEG data. Markets currently assigning a 38% probability that the Fed will decide to tighten monetary policy, up from around 31.5% on Monday. That said, analysts--in contrast to market pricing--expect the Fed to stay on hold this week. Money markets fully price in a Fed rate hike in September, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0503 GMT - The Australian dollar fell around 0.3% in Asian trading following comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Michele Bullock, says Kristina Clifton, currency strategist at CBA. Bullock left the door open for further interest rate hikes if needed, but she also noted the economy was slowing as expected and that it would take time for the full impact of earlier interest rate hikes to emerge, she says. On balance, the market assessed Bullock's comments imply the RBA is less likely to raise interest rates in the near term. Markets are currently pricing around a 19% chance of an August interest rate hike, compared to around a 32% chance before the speech, Clifton says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 28, 2026 02:50 ET (06:50 GMT)