Fidelity Q3 Signal Report: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss for BTC, ETH, and SOL at Historical Lows, Multiple Indicators Approaching Capitulation Zone

According to ChainCatcher, Fidelity Digital Assets’ Q3 2026 signal report shows that the prices of BTC, ETH, and SOL, as well as market sentiment indicators, are generally at historic lows, with multiple indicators approaching capitulation zones. Fidelity believes that the current valuation level may correspond to attractive long-term entry conditions.

By the end of Q2, the weighted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) stood at -0.01, with BTC being the only asset with a positive unrealized profit, about 10% above its cost basis and an unrealized profit of approximately $10.8 billion. Meanwhile, ETH and SOL are respectively 30% and 41% below cost basis, with unrealized losses of around $8.7 billion and $2.9 billion. BTC’s market share rose quarter-on-quarter to 68%.

According to the report’s historical backtesting, one-year median returns corresponding to the current NUPL readings for the three assets are 53%, 70%, and 542% respectively, but the reliability of the samples decreases in turn, as this reading for SOL has only appeared 21 times in history and is concentrated at the end of 2025, limiting its statistical significance.

On the fundamentals side, the stablecoin transfer value on both ETH and SOL networks has hit new highs, exceeding $20 trillion and $2.6 trillion respectively over the past 12 months, but network fee revenue continues to decline.

In addition, the report attributes the 22% drop in BTC hash rate from its peak to miners redirecting computational power towards AI and high-performance computing, as low coin prices mean AI contract revenue is more stable.