Citadel expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, while the mainstream market expectation is for rates to remain unchanged.

According to CoinDesk, Citadel, which manages $67 billion in assets, expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, while both crypto and traditional market analysts generally expect rates to remain unchanged. Frank Flight, head of macro strategy at Citadel, stated that a rate hike would decisively end the era of forward guidance, forcing the market to price based on data rather than policy expectations, and would clarify the Federal Reserve's independence. CME FedWatch data shows a 35.8% probability of a rate hike, higher than 25.7% a week ago, but the mainstream market is still betting that the Federal Reserve will stand pat. Bitcoin has retraced from nearly $67,000 last Wednesday to below $64,000, with market trading appearing cautious. AI interpretation: The Federal Reserve's rate decision is the core anchor determining the direction of global liquidity. Citadel's rate hike prediction represents a sharp contest with the market's mainstream consensus, directly impacting investors' established expectations for a shift in monetary policy. This divergence has heightened risk-averse sentiment in financial markets, forcing capital to reassess how long a high-interest-rate environment might last. The logic of market pricing has shifted from relying on forward guidance to being highly sensitive to real-time data, significantly increasing asset price volatility in the short term.