Bitcoin Is Stuck Near $65K amid Oil and Yield Spikes. Will Friday’s Jobs Data Kickstart the BTC Rally?

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) continues to trade near $65,000 on Friday as rising crude oil prices and climbing U.S. bond yields weigh on broader financial markets.

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So, can Friday’s jobs report finally push Bitcoin into new territory? Wall Street views the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release as the main catalyst capable of driving BTC prices higher or lower. Higher energy costs and slow peace talks are holding investors back right now. But if the new jobs report brings a big surprise, interest rate predictions could change quickly and jumpstart the BTC rally.

Stalled Iran Deal Drives Oil Prices Up

Crude oil prices (CM:CL) rose overnight following reports that trade talks involving Iran hit fresh obstacles. Iran announced plans to restrict U.S. and Israeli ships from moving through the Strait of Hormuz. This friction quickly pushed Brent crude oil prices up 1.4% to $83.61 per barrel.

Higher oil prices naturally raise expectations for future inflation. When inflation expectations climb, investors expect central banks to hold interest rates higher for longer. This change in mood removes the recent relief that was helping push energy costs down and supporting crypto valuations.

Rising Bond Yields Press Crypto Prices Down

The jump in energy prices quickly impacted government bond markets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed seven basis points to reach 4.73%. This level sits well above the 4.5% mark that macro analysts consider safe for riskier assets like stocks and digital currencies.

As the 10-year Treasury yield rises, Fidelity Director of Global Macro Jurrien Timmer pointed out that “recent history suggests nothing good happens above 4.5%.”

Higher bond yields make cash and government bonds more attractive to big investors, which pulls capital away from Bitcoin. As a result, BTC remains stuck in the narrow trading band between $62,000 and $66,000 that has held firm over recent months.

Friday’s Jobs Data Could Bring a Potential BTC Breakout

With geopolitical news creating headwinds, traders are focusing entirely on Friday morning’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. This monthly jobs report offers investors a clear look at the overall health of the U.S. labor market.

If the employment report shows moderate growth, it could lower bond yields and give Bitcoin room to move toward $66,000 or higher. Conversely, an unusually strong report could raise concerns about future rate hikes and keep prices locked in place. Either way, Friday’s release represents the clearest chance for Bitcoin to shift out of its current holding pattern.