XRP analyst forecasts Cycle 3 timing window after 50% compression pattern

Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has released a new study on XRP, focusing on the monthly chart and specifically examining the interaction between the 21-month exponential moving average (EMA) and the 33-period moving average (MA). Egrag Crypto is an independent market analyst known for technical studies and long-term trend analyses of major cryptocurrencies.

The EMA-MA Cross and Historical Patterns

The analysis centers on episodes where XRP experienced a bearish crossover between the 21-month EMA and the 33-period MA. In technical analysis, such crossovers can sometimes indicate a shift in price trends, with bearish crossovers marking possible corrections or bottoms.

Egrag Crypto identified two previous market cycles where this specific crossover aligned closely with XRP’s macro price bottoms. In the first cycle, XRP reached its macro bottom 244 days after the bearish crossover occurred. In the second cycle, the bottom formed 122 days before the same crossover, effectively compressing the time gap by 50% and reversing the order of events.

Two distinct cycles showed the macro bottom forming 244 days after the crossover in the first instance, and 122 days before the event on the second. This shift compressed the bottom-crossover gap by half and inverted the timing, which the analyst stated could influence the outlook for the next cycle.

In both cycles, the analyst highlighted how price movement and technical indicators aligned, but with notable changes in timing and duration.

Mini dictionary: Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a trend-following indicator that places more weight on recent prices, and Moving Average (MA), a broader trend measure, are commonly used in chart analysis to track price momentum or identify reversals.

The 50% Compression Method and Cycle 3 Projections

Applying the same 50% gap compression observed between previous cycles, Egrag Crypto projects that for Cycle 3, the macro bottom could form within a 61-day window either before or after the upcoming crossover. The analyst notes that the relationship shifted between earlier cycles, urging caution for those interpreting the results.

If the bearish crossover is expected in October 2026, the estimated bottoming windows for XRP include August 2026 (61 days before), December 2026 (61 days after), February 2027 (repeating the previous 122-day gap), April 2027 (midpoint scenario), and June 2027 (echoing Cycle 1’s 244-day position).

These timeframes account for historical reversals and aim to set parameters on the next possible macro bottom for XRP, though the analyst makes clear this is not a certainty.

Possible Scenarios: Bullish, Intermediate, and Bearish

XRP has declined approximately 61% from $3.30 to $1.28. Egrag Crypto discusses whether this significant drop means the bearish crossover is confirming a correction already in place, noting that moving averages are inherently lagging indicators.

The analyst shares three possible paths for XRP. In the bullish outlook, the $1.25 level marks the cycle bottom, and monthly moving averages may soon be reclaimed. The intermediate view suggests that XRP could dip below $1.25, briefly visiting price points at $1.20, $1.13, and $1.07—targets drawn from an Expanded Flat pattern.

In the bearish case, if XRP closes below $1.07 for an extended period, Egrag Crypto believes that the $0.80 region could become exposed to further downside.

The analyst describes a bullish scenario where $1.25 is the absolute bottom, an intermediate case for further lows, and a bearish scenario opening lower support at $0.80 if weakness persists below key thresholds.