Copper prices are set to stay near record highs next year as new mines struggle to keep pace with demand from power grids and data centres, the World Bank forecasts.
The bank raised its 2027 copper price estimate 18% from April to $13,000 per tonne, or about $5.90 per lb., in its October outlook, released Wednesday. That’s only 1.5% below the $13,200 average it now projects for this year.
“Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once,” Ayhan Kose, the bank’s deputy chief economist, said in a news release. “Higher energy costs and trade disruptions are driving up prices across a broad range of commodities, threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity and economic growth.”
For miners and investors, the outlook points to sustained demand for new copper supply alongside higher costs and an uneven recovery across other commodities. Electrification is supporting industrial metals, while weak construction weighs on iron ore and high silver prices encourage manufacturers to use less of it.
The bank expects its metals and minerals index, which includes base metals and iron ore but excludes precious metals, to rise 25% this year before easing 3.3% in 2027. Even after that decline, the index would stand 16% above its 2021 peak. The forecasts are calendar-year averages, based on information available through Oct. 14.
Supply limits
Long development timelines help explain why the bank expects prices to remain elevated. Investment is shifting toward industries that use more base metals, while exploration and mine construction can take more than a decade and refining capacity remains concentrated in a handful of countries.
Copper’s recent gains haven’t depended entirely on stronger consumption. Global demand slipped slightly in the first half, the bank found. Mine disruptions and the movement of refined metal into U.S. warehouses helped tighten availability elsewhere.
Uncertainty over possible U.S. import tariffs created a premium for copper traded on Comex over London Metal Exchange prices, drawing shipments toward the United States. That gap narrowed substantially by September, but uncertainty over tariffs taking effect in January could encourage further stockpiling and regional shortages.
Mine supply growth is expected to remain subdued as Indonesia deals with lingering weather-related disruptions and Chile faces operational constraints and declining grades. Demand should strengthen in 2027–28 through investment in electricity networks, data centres and electric vehicles.
Trade policy is adding another constraint. The Democratic Republic of Congo banned copper concentrate exports in August to encourage domestic processing, although exemptions could limit the immediate impact, the bank said. Its supporting data show 147 restrictive measures affecting critical minerals through September, against 63 measures easing trade. Those counts give every intervention equal weight, regardless of the volume of trade affected.
Uneven gains
The bank’s upward revisions extend beyond copper. It increased next year’s tin forecast 22% from April to $45,000 a tonne and its zinc estimate 13% to $3,100. Both metals are still expected to fall about 11%-12% from this year’s averages as supply improves.
Iron ore faces a different market. Weak Chinese construction and rising supply from established exporters and Guinea’s Simandou project are expected to keep pressure on prices. The bank retained its April forecast of $95 a dry tonne for 2027, down from $98 this year.
Nor does expanding clean-energy demand lift every battery material equally. Cobalt and lithium prices fell 25% and 13%, respectively, in the third quarter. Restarted Australian mines, resumed Zimbabwean concentrate exports and softer Chinese electric-vehicle sales momentum weighed on lithium.
Nickel faces competition from nickel-free lithium-iron-phosphate batteries. Stainless steel, which accounts for about two-thirds of nickel use, remains its main demand driver. The bank expects nickel prices to be little changed next year.
Precious pullback
Gold is forecast to average $4,250 per oz. in 2027, down 7.6% from this year’s projected $4,600. The bank trimmed next year’s estimate from $4,300 in April, expecting investment demand and central-bank buying to moderate while remaining supportive.
Those two sources accounted for about half of gold demand in the first half. Jewellery consumption has declined sharply since 2023, while high prices are encouraging recycling. Mine production is expected to increase only modestly.
Silver’s industrial exposure creates a sharper trade-off. The bank projects an average of $62 per oz. next year, down 11% from $70 this year and below April’s $65 forecast.
High prices are encouraging solar manufacturers to reduce silver use and substitute copper in the electrical contacts of photovoltaic cells. Growing consumption from electronics, data centres, vehicles and power infrastructure should partly offset those losses, but recycling and modest mine-supply gains are expected to ease market tightness.
Shared shocks
A companion study offers another caution for commodity investors: price volatility becomes more connected during periods of global stress.
Using daily data for 15 commodities from 2006 through June 2026, the bank found roughly one-third of volatility was associated with shocks in other commodity markets. About half of those connections occurred within broad commodity groups.
Industrial metals and food were the main net transmitters of volatility. Copper and silver stood out as bridges between markets, alongside oil and maize. These are statistical relationships; the model doesn’t establish that a shock in one market causes volatility in another.
Energy exposure
For producers, higher metal prices can come with more expensive fuel, power and processing inputs. The bank expects European electricity costs to continue constraining aluminum and zinc smelting, while disruption to Middle Eastern sulphur shipments could raise nickel-processing costs in Indonesia.
U.S. diesel prices reached record levels in October, the bank found. Damage to refineries in the Gulf region and Russia could keep diesel supplies tight even as crude exports recover, the bank said.
Its baseline assumes Brent crude eases to $79 a barrel next year from $91 in 2026. Even that lower forecast is 13% above April’s $70 estimate. An adverse scenario involving further energy-supply disruptions would put the 2027 average at $105.
Supply setbacks could therefore push metal prices above the forecasts while squeezing producers’ margins. If higher energy prices instead drive inflation, interest rates and financing costs high enough to weaken investment and manufacturing, the same shock could undermine industrial-metal demand.
