inflasi

```htmlGolden Ten Data April 9｜Macquarie stated in a stock research report that fuel prices in Southeast Asia have surged significantly and are unlikely to return to pre-Iran conflict levels in the short term. The bank said it remains optimistic about energy-related sectors, including crude oil and alternatives such as palm oil, while avoiding discretionary consumer goods, hotel, and leisure industries. The bank noted that after a sharp rise in oil prices, it usually takes about six months for consumer inflation to start increasing significantly. It added that energy subsidies in Malaysia and Indonesia may temporarily cushion the negative impact on consumers.```

On April 8, the United States and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire and agreed to begin negotiations. Iran subsequently stated that ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz may transit safely during the ceasefire period if coordinated with Iranian armed forces. Following this announcement, international crude oil futures prices, which had previously fluctuated sharply due to persistent tensions in the Middle East, plummeted instantly; New York WTI and London Brent crude oil futures both fell by more than 15%, breaking below the $100 per barrel mark. In the weeks prior, repeated turmoil in the Middle East resulted in extreme volatility across global energy markets—oil prices swung frequently between expectations of supply disruptions and signals of geopolitical de-escalation, with market sentiment oscillating between panic and watchfulness. As a critical supplier of global oil and chemical raw materials, any disturbance in the Middle East directly pushes up crude oil and basic chemical raw material prices through the energy logistics chain and supply network, creating a chain reaction throughout the petrochemical industry and resulting in a highly uncertain environment in the global energy and chemical markets. (CCTV)

Golden Ten Data reported on April 9 that, according to the Financial Times, European Commission Executive Vice-President Dombrovskis has warned that despite a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, the EU will still face a "stagflation shock" caused by low growth and rising inflation. Due to the ongoing high uncertainty surrounding the consequences of the Middle East conflict, the European Commission is preparing to downgrade this year’s growth forecast. Regarding the ceasefire agreement, he stated, "This is undoubtedly a welcome step toward de-escalation and is likely to ease the energy crisis." However, he cautioned, "The economic impact of the Iran war, of course, still faces a high degree of uncertainty," and "it is clear that we are facing a stagflation shock." The European Commission will update its official GDP forecast in May. Prior to the outbreak of the conflict, the Commission forecasted EU economic growth to remain at 1.4% this year and 1.5% in 2027. However, according to analysis shared with the Financial Times, recent scenario calculations by the Commission suggest that if energy prices return to pre-Iran war levels by the end of 2026, this year’s economic growth could slow by as much as 0.4 percentage points. If it takes longer for energy prices to fall back to pre-war levels, economic growth in both this year and next year could slow by 0.6 percentage points, respectively.