Bitcoin News Update: Recent Bitcoin Selloff Led by Short-Term Holders While Long-Term Investors Remain Unfazed

Bitget-RWA2025/11/21 20:52

By:Bitget-RWA

- Bitcoin triggered a "death cross" on Nov. 16, falling below key moving averages to $80,500, erasing 2025 gains and causing $1B+ liquidations. - Analysts split between bearish signals (historical 60-70% declines post-2018/2022) and skepticism about outdated technical indicators. - Short-term holders drove $800M+ weekly losses (2022 levels), contrasting long-term holders' calm amid deteriorating market structure. - Price must reclaim $100,000 within days to invalidate bear case, with potential 2026 bottom

Bitcoin's technical signals have issued a stark alert as the cryptocurrency confirmed a "death cross," a bearish chart pattern that has often preceded extended declines. On November 16,

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped beneath both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages

, marking the first occurrence of this crossover since January 2024. The price fell to $80,500,

the lowest point since April

, wiping out all gains made in 2025 and causing over $1 billion in liquidations throughout the crypto sector.

The fear and greed index plunged to 11

, reflecting intense market fear, while on-chain metrics revealed realized losses climbing to levels

not seen since the FTX collapse in 2022

The death cross, a well-known technical indicator, has often come before steep price drops. In 2022,

a similar signal coincided with a 64% plunge

to $15,500, and in 2018 and 2020, it preceded declines of 67% and 71%, respectively. Experts are divided on whether this marks the start of a new bear market or just a temporary correction. Some, such as

Adam Kobeissi of The Kobeissi Letter

, describe the move as a "routine" bear phase, while others, including Egrag Crypto, believe moving averages have lost their predictive edge and that

Bitcoin

is still holding above crucial long-term support

Market conditions have worsened further.

Bitcoin's 50-week EMA was broken on November 17

, undermining bullish momentum.

Bitcoin News Update: Recent Bitcoin Selloff Led by Short-Term Holders While Long-Term Investors Remain Unfazed image 0

Short-term investors are fueling the sell-off

, with realized losses topping $800 million per week, a threshold last reached in November 2022.

Glassnode data shows that STHs are responsible for most of the capitulation

, closing positions as prices dip below their cost basis. Meanwhile,

long-term holders remain largely unfazed

, indicating underlying market resilience.

Historical trends present conflicting signals.

Analyst Ali Martinez points out that previous death crosses eventually reversed

, leading to renewed upward momentum, although the 2022 downturn persisted for 364 days. If the current cycle peaked in October 2025,

a possible bottom could form by October 2026

, echoing earlier cycles.

On-chain data suggests continued distribution

by seasoned holders, complicating bullish expectations.

The broader economic backdrop adds more uncertainty.

Traders are awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December

, with debates ongoing about whether a policy shift will spark inflation or help stabilize markets. Bitcoin's price swings have also been intensified by

a "mechanical glitch" on October 10

, which led to $19 billion in liquidations, along with persistent pressure from derivatives trading

Looking forward,

Bitcoin needs to recover $100,000

and reclaim the 350-day moving average to dismiss the bearish scenario.

A bounce within a week could indicate a short-term rally

, but if the price fails to recover, it may confirm a more severe downward trend.

Analysts such as Rekt Capital stress the importance

: "The price must quickly reclaim this level during a relief rally to preserve the market structure."

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Bitcoin News Update: Recent Bitcoin Selloff Led by Short-Term Holders While Long-Term Investors Remain Unfazed

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