Analysis-A year into Trump presidency, 'pivot to China' gathers pace

Trump raised tariffs on China to over 100% in April, before partially reversing and settling for a temporary truce, while Beijing boosted its exports to non-US markets and rolled out support measures for its private enterprises and markets.

Chinese ​shipments to the U.S. fell 20% in 2025, but rose 25.8% to Africa, 7.4% to Latin America, 13.4% to Southeast Asia and 8.4% to the European Union last year.

"Many countries previously have not been China-friendly are now ‌kind of pivoting to China ... because the United States is becoming a lot less predictable," Tomic said. "The more the U.S. gets difficult to deal with, the more it opens up for China."

Despite the trade tensions with the U.S., China's economy, under deflationary pressure at home due to weak domestic consumption and a long-term property sector slump, has met the government's target of 5% growth in 2025.

In recent months China has taken a raft of measures to boost foreign investment, including pilot programmes in Beijing, Shanghai and other regions to expand market access in services such as telecoms, healthcare and education.

The country recorded the largest-ever monthly forex inflows of $100.1 billion in December, according to bank settlement data from its forex regulator. Its official forex reserves hit a 10-year high of $3.36 trillion.

Its financial market has emerged robust from trade disputes with the Shanghai index climbing 27% over the past year, outperforming U.S. equities, the market turnover hitting ⁠a record high and the yuan expanding its global usage.

With the dollar becoming less appealing to investors due to Trump's erratic approach ​to trade and international diplomacy, Beijing is also pushing ahead with its ambition to bolster the global usage of yuan, said bankers ​with knowledge of the matter.

Some of the big global banks are scrambling to boost yuan liquidity in offshore hubs and put in place frameworks for faster payment settlements in yuan in trade corridors of China and Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, they added.

"We have seen quite a few cycles of China trying to internationalise yuan and then pulling back," said ‍a banker at a global bank with China presence. "This time it's ⁠different ... Trump policies are very conducive for boosting yuan usage."

More than half of China's cross-border transactions are now settled in yuan, from almost none 15 years ago, while nearly half of China's overseas bank lending is now in renminbi, according to the latest data from the PBOC and SAFE.

CHINA CAUTION

But some foreign policy analysts caution against China's new, friendlier economic and political playbook.

Despite the new trade pacts, Patricia Kim, ⁠a foreign policy fellow at Washington-based Brookings Institution, said distrust of the U.S. does not translate into trust in Beijing for U.S. allies and partners.

"Many of these countries harbour deep concerns about China's approach to trade, its use of economic coercion, and unresolved maritime and historical ‌disputes," Kim said.

"In the current moment, China may appear more restrained or pragmatic when compared with the Trump administration's extreme rhetoric and actions. But Beijing's actual behaviour has not been especially reassuring."

(Reporting ‌by Liz Lee in Beijing, Samuel Shen in Shanghai and Sumeet Chatterjee in Hong Kong; Editing by Michael Perry)