Dogecoin faces make-or-break test at MA350 support after October flash crash

Dogecoin consolidates near key support as analysts split between a parabolic upside repeat of past cycles and a deeper bear phase if MA350 support finally breaks.

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading within a narrow range over the past month as market analysts present diverging forecasts for the cryptocurrency’s near-term trajectory, according to market commentary published this week.

Dogecoin reached a one-month high in January

The cryptocurrency reached a one-month high during the early January rally and retested range lows over the weekend before recovering to current levels, according to price data. Dogecoin is currently attempting to reclaim a key technical area to continue its recovery, market observers noted.

Analyst Bitcoinsensus stated that Dogecoin has followed a similar pattern during previous market cycles. Historical chart analysis shows that after retracing from previous highs, the cryptocurrency recorded extended consolidation periods followed by parabolic runs to new highs when market conditions permitted, according to the analyst’s assessment. Previous breakouts from Dogecoin’s long-term accumulation zones have resulted in substantial gains, the analysis indicated.

Trader Tardigrade noted that Dogecoin’s current weekly timeframe performance mirrors its Q4 2024 breakout, which led to a multi-year high. The structure, duration, and magnitude of the current and previous pullbacks show similarities, with substantial declines from local highs over several weeks, according to the trader’s analysis. Based on this pattern, Tardigrade suggested the cryptocurrency might have completed its pullback and could advance to the next high in the coming weeks.

Market analyst TradingShot presented a contrasting view, stating that Dogecoin has entered a new bear cycle and faces risk of significant further decline if selling pressure and market volatility persist. The analysis noted that Dogecoin is currently supported by the 350-day moving average, which has held since the October 2025 flash crash. The weekly MA350 has served as support during previous bear cycles, according to historical data.

If this technical level breaks, the memecoin could enter the second phase of the bear cycle, potentially targeting a deep retracement level or extending to losses comparable to the previous two bear cycles, TradingShot stated. The analyst’s sine wave analysis suggests Dogecoin’s bottom could occur by Q4 2026, indicating investors may become long-term buyers around that timeframe.

As of the latest trading data, Dogecoin is trading lower on the weekly timeframe.