Trump’s Shifting Stance on Iran Continues to Empower Oil Bulls

Energy Markets Remain Resilient Amid Supply Growth

Despite an uptick in global oil supply, markets maintained high risk premiums as shifting U.S. policy towards Iran and persistent weather-related challenges continued to influence sentiment.

Market Highlights – January 30, 2026

This week, oil prices found support from President Trump’s unpredictable statements regarding Iran—ranging from threats of force to calls for negotiation. The gradual restoration of Kazakhstan’s output did little to dampen bullish momentum, with ICE Brent closing above $70 per barrel. Ongoing disruptions from Winter Storm Fern in the U.S. left approximately 500,000 barrels per day of production offline, further tightening supply.

Key Developments in the Energy Sector

• Sanctions on Venezuelan Oil Eased: The Trump administration rolled back most sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector, issuing General License 46 shortly after Venezuela’s parliament approved reforms ending PDVSA’s monopoly.
• Reliance Resumes Russian Oil Imports: India’s largest private refiner, Reliance, is set to restart purchases of Russian Urals crude, with imports expected to reach up to 150,000 barrels per day, following a period of halted shipments and subdued European demand.
• Restart for Mozambique LNG: After a four-year suspension due to security concerns, the TotalEnergies-led Mozambique LNG project has officially resumed, targeting a 2030 launch for the $25 billion facility.
• Carlyle Secures Lukoil Asset Deal: U.S. private equity firm Carlyle Group has agreed to acquire most of Lukoil’s international assets in a $22 billion deal, excluding Kazakh holdings. The transaction awaits approval from the U.S. Treasury.
• Setback for Mexico’s Dos Bocas Refinery: The Dos Bocas refinery, Mexico’s newest and most advanced, was forced to shut down operations due to a power outage, reportedly caused by a technical fault in its catalytic converter.
• Tungsten Prices Hit Record Highs: Shrinking inventories and increased demand from the defense sector, coupled with export restrictions, have pushed Chinese ammonium paratungstate prices to an unprecedented $1,150 per metric ton.
• Indian Refiners Expand Ties with Brazil: Petrobras, Brazil’s state oil company, has entered into three supply agreements totaling around 60 million barrels with Indian refiners, strengthening the growing trade relationship between the two nations.

Additional Industry Updates

• U.S. Rethinks Critical Minerals Price Support: The Trump administration is reportedly reconsidering plans to set minimum price floors for domestic critical mineral projects, reflecting funding challenges and causing mining stocks to fall by 5-7%.
• Kuwait Eyes Pipeline Asset Sale: Kuwait is preparing to sell a portion of its oil pipeline network, potentially raising up to $7 billion, following recent moves by Saudi Aramco and BlackRock.
• U.S. Upstream M&A Surges: According to Enverus, U.S. upstream mergers and acquisitions rebounded in late 2025, reaching $23.5 billion in Q4, with Mitsubishi’s $7.4 billion purchase of Aethon Energy Management’s assets leading the way.
• Major Players Target Venezuelan Gas: Shell and BP have applied for U.S. licenses to develop natural gas fields spanning Venezuela and Trinidad & Tobago, aiming to boost LNG exports from the region.
• Russia and Ukraine Agree to Pause Energy Attacks: President Trump announced that Russia has agreed to halt strikes on power plants in Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities, following a series of missile attacks on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure.
• Copper Prices Retreat After Volatility: Copper briefly surpassed $14,500 per metric ton before falling back to $13,000, as technical issues at the LME, profit-taking, and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair prompted a market pullback.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

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