Data-Intensive Bombardment Day: Multiple Economic Signals to Be Revealed Soon

⑴ Six important data releases are scheduled for early Tuesday, marking the start of a busy day. First is the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. This will be followed by the Q4 Employment Cost Index, December Import and Export Prices, and December Retail Sales data, all to be released at 08:30 (UTC+8). Finally, November Business Inventories and the New York Fed's Household Debt and Credit Report will be published at 10:00 (UTC+8). ⑵ After the data releases, the market will hear from two officials: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (voting member, hawkish) will speak on "Banking and Economic Outlook" at 12:00 (UTC+8), and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (voting member, hawkish-leaning) will participate in a discussion at the 2026 Asset Management Derivatives Forum at 13:00 (UTC+8). ⑶ The Treasury also has a busy schedule, announcing the issuance of 4-week, 8-week, and 17-week Treasury bills at 11:00 (UTC+8), auctioning 90 billions of 6-week Treasury bills at 11:30 (UTC+8), auctioning 58 billions of 3-year Treasury notes at 13:00 (UTC+8), and conducting a buyback of up to 2 billions of 10- to 20-year coupon-bearing Treasury bonds at 14:00 (UTC+8). ⑷ The market generally expects December retail sales to continue moderate and robust growth, with total sales projected to rise 0.4% month-on-month, sales excluding autos up 0.3%, and control group sales up 0.4%. However, concerns remain about potentially fragile growth in a K-shaped economy, a sharp decline in consumer confidence indices, and data lags caused by previous government shutdowns. ⑸ The import and export price report, also affected by the government shutdown, is closely watched. December import prices are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, while export prices are expected to edge up 0.1%. The core import price index excluding fuel appears to be emerging from a period of weakness, having risen 0.6% cumulatively from September to November, which may indicate that the extent to which foreign producers are absorbing tariffs, or the impact of tariffs themselves, is diminishing. ⑹ The Employment Cost Index is expected to rise 0.8% quarter-on-quarter for the second consecutive quarter, with the year-on-year growth rate slowing from +3.5% to +3.4%, the lowest level since Q2 2021. The downward trend is clear but slow, and the growth rate remains higher than at any time between the global financial crisis and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. ⑺ Business inventories are expected to grow by 0.2% in November, roughly in line with the trend. Due to the continued suspension of leading economic indicator reports following the government shutdown, and the lack of preliminary retail inventory data as a reference, inventory data may present more surprises than usual.