MasTec to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

MasTec, Inc. MTZ is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 26, after the closing bell.

In the last reported quarter, its earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.4% and 1.6%, respectively. Also, on a year-over-year basis, both metrics grew 48% and 22%, respectively.

This leading infrastructure construction company’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with an average surprise of 18.9%.

MTZ’s Q4 Earnings & Revenue Expectations

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MTZ’s fourth-quarter earnings has remained stable at $1.94 per share in the past 60 days. The estimated figure indicates a 34.7% increase on a year-over-year basis.

MasTec, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

MasTec, Inc. price-eps-surprise | MasTec, Inc. Quote

The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.72 billion, indicating a 9.2% year-over-year rise.

Factors Likely to Shape MasTec’s Quarterly Results

Revenues

MasTec is likely to deliver year-over-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter, supported by broad-based organic expansion, solid execution and favorable demand trends across its diversified end markets. Growth is expected to have been driven by strong communications infrastructure spending, particularly broadband deployment, fiber expansion and data center-related investments, alongside sustained activity in renewables, grid modernization and natural gas pipeline construction.

The diversified operating model of MasTec is expected to remain a core strength in the fourth quarter. The Communications segment (contributed 23% to the third quarter of 2025 revenues) is likely to benefit from continued geographic expansion, a broader suite of service offerings and increasing capital intensity from telecom and hyperscale customers. Meanwhile, the Clean Energy & Infrastructure segment (contributed 34% to the third quarter of 2025 revenues) is expected to remain supported by robust solar demand, improving wind activity and disciplined project execution.

The Power Delivery segment (contributed 28% to the third quarter of 2025 revenues) is positioned to capitalize on sustained transmission, substation and distribution investments driven by grid reliability needs and increasing load demand, supported by a largely recurring, maintenance-oriented revenue base. Likewise, the Pipeline Infrastructure segment (contributed 15% to the third quarter of 2025 revenues) is experiencing improved activity trends, firm customer commitments and enhanced visibility into upcoming project starts, factors that are likely to have supported the segment’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. 

For the Power Delivery unit, revenues are currently pegged at $1 billion, up from $762.1 million reported a year ago. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Communications segment revenues is currently pegged at $763 million compared with $975.3 million reported a year ago.

Additionally, the Pipeline Infrastructure unit's revenues are currently pegged at $706 million, up from $429.5 million reported a year ago. 

However, this growth is likely to be somewhat offset by a decline in the Clean Energy and Infrastructure segment, where the estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.23 billion, down from $1.26 billion reported in the prior quarter.

Margins

On the margins front, the bottom-line performance in the fourth quarter is likely to represent growth from the prior year, supported by operating leverage from higher volumes, productivity initiatives, improved project mix and disciplined cost management. These factors are expected to drive sequential margin expansion and position the company favorably entering 2026.

However, margins could face modest headwinds from lower-than-previously expected activity on the Greenlink project due to permitting delays. In addition, project mix shifts, early-stage ramp costs on large transmission and pipeline projects, ongoing investments in new geographies within Communications, and labor cost pressures may partially offset margin gains in the to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for adjusted EBITDA in the Clean Energy and Infrastructure segment is currently pegged at $98 million compared with $104.3 million reported in the prior-year quarter. The Communications segment is projected to generate adjusted EBITDA of $79 million, down from $96.5 million a year ago.

For the Power Delivery and Pipeline Infrastructure segments, adjusted EBITDA is estimated at $87 million and $105 million, respectively, representing increases from $54.4 million and $58.5 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

Backlog

For backlog, the consensus mark is currently pegged at $16.86 billion compared with $14.30 billion reported a year ago.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for backlog in the Clean Energy and Infrastructure segment is currently pegged at $5.03 billion compared with $4.24 billion reported in the prior-year quarter. The Communications segment is projected to report a backlog of $5.06 billion, down from $6.01 million a year ago.

For the Power Delivery and Pipeline Infrastructure segments, backlog is estimated at $5.13 billion and $1.64 billion, respectively, representing increases from $3.31 billion and $735 million reported in the prior-year quarter.

What Our Model Unveils for MTZ Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict a beat for MasTec this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as elaborated below.

MTZ’s Earnings ESP: The company currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies in the Zacks Construction sector that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the quarter to be reported.

Orion Group Holdings, Inc. ORN has an Earnings ESP of +33.33% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.

Orion Group’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 241.4%. ORN’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to decline 62.5% year over year.

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. STRL currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.01% and a Zacks Rank of 2.

Sterling’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average surprise being 14%. STRL’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to increase 82.2% year over year.

Limbach Holdings, Inc. LMB presently has an Earnings ESP of +3.91% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Limbach’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four quarters and missed on the remaining one occasion, the average surprise being 83%. LMB’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to rise 11.3% year over year.