Wolfe Research Bearish on Circle Internet Group (CRCL) on Lower EBITDA Expectations

Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE:CRCL) is one of 15 stocks with the biggest hedge fund momentum, after gaining 28 hedge fund holders during the fourth quarter of 2025. On February 12, Wolfe Research lowered its price target on Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE:CRCL) to $40 from $65 while maintaining an Underperform rating.

In his report, Wolfe Research analyst Daniel Krebs cited “material lower out-year profitability estimate with similar operation expense growth assumptions” compared to the firm’s prior model as the primary reason for the target reduction. The new price target is based on a multiple of 19x the firm’s 2027 EBITDA estimate of $634 million, down from the previous estimate of $865 million. The multiple was also reduced from 21.5x previously. Despite the lower target, Wolfe Research noted that the assigned multiple on the company behind the stablecoin USDC, the second-most popular of its digital asset class following USDT, still represents a premium to peers trading at around 13-19x.

Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE:CRCL) is a financial technology company that creates digital currencies and public blockchains for payments, commerce, and financial applications worldwide.

While we acknowledge the potential of CRCL as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk.