The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a on The Kraft Heinz Company on SmallCap Value's Report’s Substack by SmallCap Value. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on KHC. The Kraft Heinz Company's share was trading at $24.32 as of February 12th. KHC’s trailing and forward P/E were 22.43 and 9.80 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

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The Kraft Heinz Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in North America and internationally. KHC is executing a strategic value unlock through its planned 2026 corporate split, separating a high-growth global business (“Good Co”) from a struggling North American grocery business (“Bad Co”). The Good Co, led by brands like Heinz Ketchup, Primal Kitchen, and key condiments, benefits from strong consumer loyalty, global expansion potential, and resilient market share gains, particularly in emerging markets.

This entity is positioned for reliable revenue growth and premium brand dominance, aiming to shed the conglomerate discount that previously limited valuation. The Bad Co, encompassing legacy U.S. brands such as Oscar Mayer, Kraft Mac & Cheese, Lunchables, and Maxwell House, faces declining volumes due to private label competition and took the brunt of a $9.3 billion impairment. Its role is focused on generating stable cash flow and supporting dividend payouts. KHC’s overall financial profile is solid, with 3–10% yearly free cash flow growth, a ~10% FCF yield, a 0.5 debt-to-equity ratio, and sustainable dividends with a ~70% payout ratio.

The company is also advancing AI integration and digital transformation through projects like Agile@Scale, digital twins for manufacturing, Project TasteMaker, and The Cookbook AI platform, improving operational efficiency and accelerating innovation. Supply chain modernization includes a $400M automated distribution center and autonomous planning initiatives, while product renovation emphasizes health-conscious recipes and sustainable packaging.

With Berkshire Hathaway stepping back from board control, the split is further catalyzed. The spin-off is expected to unlock substantial shareholder value, particularly for the high-growth global entity, while mitigating downside through the stable cash flows of the North American business. The market’s current low valuation provides an attractive entry point, with upside potential ranging from 20–30%, and in optimistic scenarios, possibly doubling.

Previously, we covered a 

on The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) by Kostadin Ristovski, ACCA in April 2025, which highlighted post-merger debt challenges, cost-cutting pitfalls, and stable cash flows with disciplined capital allocation. KHC’s stock price has depreciated by approximately 17.5% since our coverage due to declining volumes and competitive pressures in the food industry. SmallCap Value shares a similar perspective but emphasizes the 2026 corporate split, unlocking value through a high-growth global business and operational modernization.

The Kraft Heinz Company is not on our list of the 

. As per our database, 50 hedge fund portfolios held KHC at the end of the third quarter which was 45 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of KHC as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than KHC and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this

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