This XRP Level Is 'Where Everything Changes,' Analyst Says

XRP is in a compression phase rather than a breakdown, according to analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, who says the chart’s most important trigger now sits at $2.20. In a post published Friday, he argued that reclaiming that level would mark the point where the current structure turns decisively constructive again.

EGRAG’s analysis is built around the monthly XRP chart and, specifically, the 21-period exponential moving average. “I keep repeating this: I don’t predict the future. I read charts, study cycles, and utilize on indicators,” he wrote, framing the setup less as a directional call than as a structural read of the market. “Right now the 21 EMA is the key.”

XRP price analysis, monthly chart | Source: @egragcrypto

What This Mean For XRP Price

On his chart, that yellow 21 EMA has acted as the central trend reference through multiple XRP cycles. The latest monthly candles show price slipping below that line after a sharp rally, then moving into what he describes as a “descending compression / falling Channel.” He paired that with another key observation: “Price lost the 21 EMA,” “formed a descending compression / falling Channel,” and was “rejected from the $2.20 macro zone.” His conclusion from that combination was blunt: “This is not a crash structure.”

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That distinction is the core of the thesis. Rather than reading the recent decline as broad capitulation, EGRAG says the candle behavior points to a controlled retracement. “Look at the candles: shrinking bodies, weakening downward momentum, controlled retracement,” he wrote. “That’s seller exhaustion, not collapse.”

The chart supports that reading visually. The candles on the right side of the structure are smaller than during the earlier impulse move, and the decline appears more contained than impulsive. The falling yellow guide lines drawn over the recent price action show a narrowing channel rather than a steep vertical unwind. In practical terms, the setup looks like compression into a decision point, not an outright structural failure.

EGRAG then laid out two possible paths from here. The first is what he called a “Liquidity Sweep First,” meaning “a final shakeout toward $0.80-$1.00.” In his wording, that scenario would reflect a “wedge measured move & liquidity below,” suggesting XRP could still dip toward the lower part of the structure before any broader reversal attempt.

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The second path is the more immediate bullish alternative. “Fast Reclaim,” he wrote, would come “if XRP reclaims $1.65–$1.80,” at which point “the structure flips bullish again.” That reclaim zone matters because it would indicate that the compression has failed to produce follow-through to the downside and that buyers are regaining control before a deeper flush.

Still, the chart’s most important level sits higher. EGRAG is explicit on that point: “The Level That Changes Everything $2.20: Reclaim that level and the expansion phase reactivates.” He followed that with the roadmap above it: “Next targets: $2.20 reclaim, $2.50 retest.”

That makes $2.20 more than just a nearby resistance band. On this reading, it is the macro pivot separating a still-unresolved correction from a renewed expansion phase. The analyst had already identified it as the zone where XRP was previously rejected, so a move back above it would not just recover lost ground; it would invalidate the idea that the market remains trapped below a failed breakout area.

For now, though, his message is that the market remains in waiting mode. “Until then…This is compression, not capitulation,” EGRAG wrote. “Structure > Noise.”

At press time, XRP traded at $1.41.

XRP still hovers below the 200-week EMA, 1-week chart | Source: XRPUSDT on TradingView.com