Futures dip, oil hovers above $100 - what’s moving markets

Investing.com - Futures linked to the major U.S. averages point down, with traders attempting to keep tabs on a flood of reports around possible talks to end the Iran conflict. Oil floats above $100 a barrel once again, while the U.S. dollar firms and gold ticks down. Meanwhile, Jefferies Financial first-quarter earnings are hit by losses on loans to collapsed firms.

1. Futures inch lower

U.S. stock futures edged down on Thursday, while oil prices rose, as investors assessed the prospects of a resolution to the war in Iran.

By 04:18 ET (08:18 GMT), the Dow futures contract had slipped by 203 points, or 0.4%, S&P 500 futures had declined by 35 points, or 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had decreased by 156 points, or 0.6%.

The main averages on Wall Street climbed in the prior session, fueled by hopes that the U.S. and Iran may be open to engaging in talks to end the almost month-old conflict. Media reports said Tehran had privately signaled a willingness to have discussions with Washington, while U.S. Vice President JD Vance is said to potentially ready to travel to Pakistan for negotiations as soon as this weekend.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal said that the U.S. and Israel could hold off on attempts to assassinate Iran's foreign minister or parliament speaker as communications continue.

Still, the messaging, as it has throughout much of this war, has been mixed. The two sides appear to be far apart in their demands for terms to halt hostilities, and the Pentagon has been moving to place more ground troops in the Middle East.

At the same time, officials in Israel, who has jointly waged a campaign against Iran with the U.S., are reportedly concerned that the U.S. will declare a one-month ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has, as a result, ordered a fresh two-day drive to destroy as much of Iran's military capacity as possible, the New York Times and CNN reported.

2. Oil hovers above $100 a barrel

With traders attempting to parse through a deluge of developments out of the Middle East, oil prices once again floated above the $100 a barrel threshold on Thursday.

The futures contract expiring in May for Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last higher by3.4% at $105.73 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also gained 3.7% to $93.67 a barrel.

Iran is reportedly reviewing a 15-point peace proposal from the U.S., although the White House has warned that more air strikes will pummel the country should it not make a deal. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said U.S. President Donald Trump "does not bluff and [...] is prepared to unleash hell," but the Wall Street Journal has reported that Trump has told aides that he would like to bring the war to a swift conclusion.

Analysts at Vital Knowledge highlighted that the Trump administration has put out an official date of May 14-15 for the president's upcoming trip to China, possible suggesting that the U.S. expects the war to be fully concluded by then.

Crucially, amid all the morass of reports and rumors, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The vital waterway through which roughly a fifth of world's oil and natural gas flows has been all but shuttered by the threat of Iranian attacks for weeks. Oil prices have moderated slightly from a surge to nearly $120 a barrel earlier this month, yet are well above levels prior to the outbreak of the war in late February.

3. Dollar firms

Oil hovering above $100 a barrel has helped to underpin strength in the U.S. dollar even as some risk sentiment has improved, analysts at ING said in a note.

The greenback has appeared to be one of investors' safe havens of choice since the start of the conflict, firming by about 2% over the past one-month period.

A tracker of the dollar against a basket of currency peers, which has roiled this week amid the flood of headlines around the Iran war, was last higher by 0.1% at 99.70.

"Markets may well require some more convincing headlines on de-escalation to take the dollar meaningfully lower from here," the ING analysts including Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner said in a note.

4. Gold slips

The dollar's relative strength has contributed to keeping a lid on any recovery in gold prices, which have slumped since the start of the war from a record peak touched earlier this year.

Some commentators have suggested that gold's surge in recent months dented its relative appeal as investors hunted for other bastions amid a conflict that has widened to include countries across the Middle East.

At the same time, expectations that the Federal Reserve will react to an energy-induced inflation shock by leaving interest rates higher for longer has taken some of the shine off of non-yielding assets like bullion.

Spot gold was lower by 1.7% at $4,432.27 an ounce by 05:02 ET. Gold futures had slipped by 2.7% to $4,461.59 an ounce.

"In the near term, gold is trading inside a defined range. The market needs to clear the mid-$4,500s and hold it to shift the tone. Until that happens, rallies can still run into resistance and turn into selling opportunities," American Hartford Gold President Max Baecker told Investing.com.

5. Jefferies earnings

Elsewhere, Jefferies Financial posted results that underwhelmed investor expectations, as losses on loans to collapsed companies overshadowed strong investment banking returns in the first quarter.

Jefferies said, adjusting for compensation and taxes, it had booked $17 million in losses related to fall of British lender Market Financial Solutions and First Brands, an American auto-parts supplier which went bankrupt.

But speaking to Reuters, Jefferies President Brian Friedman said the environment for dealmaking and initial public offerings should continue to be "increasingly strong" assuming a "reasonable end" is made to the Iran war.

Along with string of potential high-profile public flotations in the technology sector later this year, more than $1 trillion worth of deals have been announced so far in 2026, 27% higher than the same time in 2025, according to Dealogic data cited by Reuters.

(Reuters contributed reporting.)