coindesk.com 
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
As the new quarter gets underway, the crypto market is sending a subtle but important signal: traders seem a bit more cautious about bitcoin than ether ($ETH).
You can see this in the options market, where more experienced traders and institutions go to hedge risk or generate extra returns. Think of options as a kind of insurance. Traders can buy protection against price drops (puts) or bet on price increases (calls), depending on their outlook.
Right now, one key metric, called a risk reversal, is negative for both bitcoin and ether across different time frames. In simple terms, that means puts, or downside protection, is more expensive than bullish bets. When traders are willing to pay more for put options, it usually signals lingering fears of a price drop. That's perfectly normal, considering the brutal downtrend in bitcoin and ether since October.
But here’s where it gets interesting: that caution is stronger for bitcoin. Put options on bitcoin are more expensive than those on ether across all time frames, suggesting traders are more worried about $BTC’s downside risk.
The difference becomes even clearer when zooming further out. Longer-dated ether options, such as those expiring next March, are only slightly bearish, while bitcoin’s equivalent options carry a much steeper premium for downside protection.
In short, the market is betting that ether will be relatively resilient. That would signal a bullish trend change in the ether-to-bitcoin ratio, which has been in a downtrend since August (see the technical analysis section).
Ether has risen 5% over the past 24 hours, outpacing bitcoin , $XRP ($XRP), solana (SOL), and the CoinDesk 20 Index. Several smaller tokens associated with quantum-computing-resistant technology have rallied by 20% or more.
Analysts said a firm breakout in $BTC above its 50-day moving average of $68,680 will likely strengthen the bullish momentum.
In traditional markets, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell for the fourth straight day while futures tied to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose nearly 0.5%. Together, these things point to risk-on sentiment ahead. Stay
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Crypto
- April 1: BGDLabs officially leaves the Aave DAO
- Macro
- April 1, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change for March (Prev. 63K)
- April 1, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for March (Prev. 52.4)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Nothing scheduled.
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Governance votes & calls
- April 1: HTX to host a live X Spaces session with World Mobile.
- April 1: KuCoin to host a live X Spaces session with Katana.
- Unlocks
- April 1: to unlock 1.10% of its circulating supply worth $38.29 million.
- Token Launches
- April 1: Orexn (OXN) enters a phased exchange listing period after the token generation event.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".
- Day 3 of 4: EthCC (Cannes, France)
- Day 2 of 2: Chainalysis Links (New York City)
Market Movements
- $BTC is up 0.61% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $68,622.64 (24hrs: +3.34%)
- $ETH is up 1.47% at $2,136.90(24hrs: +5.27%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.62% at 1,968.28 (24hrs: +3.62%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.76%
- $BTC funding rate is at 0.0033% (3.5193% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.37% at 99.59
- Gold futures are up 1.5% at $4,748.80
- Silver futures are down 0.69% at $74.40
- Nikkei 225 closed up 5.24% at 53,739.68
- Hang Seng closed up 2.04% at 25,294.03
- FTSE is up 1.63% at 10,342.45
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.75% at 5,667.09
- DJIA closed on Tuesday up 2.49% at 46,341.51
- S&P 500 closed up 2.91% at 6,528.52
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 3.83% at 21,590.63
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 2.61% at 32,768.04
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 4.26% at 3,623.86
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 3.2 bps at 4.279%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.33% at 6,592.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.48% at 24,030.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.36% at 46,750.00
Bitcoin Stats
- $BTC Dominance: 58.72% (-0.04%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03111 (0.89%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,004 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $32.37
- Total fees: 2.47 $BTC / $166,441
- CME Futures Open Interest:104,900 $BTC
- $BTC priced in gold: 14.5 oz.
- $BTC vs gold market cap: 4.58%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily swings in the ether-bitcoin ratio in the candlestick format.
- The ratio has been trending lower since August, showcasing ether underperformance relative to bitcoin. This downtrend is represented by the yellow line that connects the steady decline over seven months.
- The outlook would flip bullish if the ratio rises past this trendline. Such a move would confirm renewed investor preference for ether, as suggested by the options market.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $174.61 (+8.60%), +1.80% at $177.75 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $95.41 (+6.12%), +2.69% at $97.98
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $18.45 (+7.58%), +1.94% at $18.81
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.73 (+7.39%), +0.95% at $36.07
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.16 (+4.62%), +1.35% at $8.27
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.36 (+4.48%), +2.35% at $12.65
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.96 (+7.55%), -0.40% at $14.90
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.51 (+4.03%), +2.12% at $8.69
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $34.82 (+7.70%), +1.81% at $35.45
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.50 (+4.84%), -0.92% at $6.44
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $124.80 (+2.77%), +1.48% at $126.65
- Strive (ASST): closed at $10.02 (+6.94%), +1.90% at $10.21
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.45 (+7.32%), +2.02% at $6.58
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.99 (+3.90%), +6.49% at $1.05
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.16 (+11.54%)
ETF Flows
Spot $BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: $117.5 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.09 billion
- Total $BTC holdings ~ 1.29 million
Spot $ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $31.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.59 billion
- Total $ETH holdings ~ 5.70 million
