EUR/USD holds steady below 1.1600 ahead of Trump's speech

The EUR/USD pair holds steady around 1.1590 during the early Asian session on Thursday. Markets turn cautious ahead of US President Donald Trump’s address on the Iran war. The US weekly Initial Jobless Claims report is due later on Thursday. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will be in the spotlight on Friday. 

Trump will address the nation at 01:00 GMT on Thursday to give an “update” on the war with Iran. The speech will be the first major national address the president has delivered on the conflict since the first joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. A White House official said that Trump is expected to tout US military successes against Iran and reiterate a two- to three-week timeline for concluding the operation.

Easing tensions between the US. and Iran could improve market sentiment, which might weigh on the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset and create a tailwind for the major pair. 

Financial markets are now pricing in a higher probability of the European Central Bank (ECB) tightening, with a 76% odds of a 25-basis-point (bps) increase by June 2026, according to Reuters. Major banks, such as J.P. Morgan and Barclays, have revised their forecasts to include up to three interest rate hikes this year.