Gold maintains its weekly advance, though gains are limited by concerns over higher oil prices and interest rates

Gold Market Weekly Overview: Volatility Amid Middle East Tensions

Gold prices are poised to finish the week with another positive performance, but analysts highlight that the market remains unsettled due to heightened volatility stemming from ongoing unrest in the Middle East.

Currently, gold is on track for a 3% weekly increase, trading above $4,600 per ounce. However, the metal encountered strong resistance around $4,800 midweek, failing to break through that level on both Wednesday and Thursday.

Experts attribute this price movement to the ongoing standoff involving the United States and Israel against Iran. Throughout the week, both gold and silver experienced renewed buying interest, as investors hoped for a swift resolution to the conflict.

Despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to reassure the nation in his Wednesday address, market participants are increasingly bracing for a drawn-out confrontation. This sentiment is reflected in oil prices, which have climbed back above $100 per barrel as the Easter holiday approaches.

Concerns over further disruptions to global supply chains are also contributing to ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar.

“The pledge to send Iran back to the Stone Age stands in stark contrast to earlier comments about ending the conflict within a few weeks through negotiations,” observed Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro. “Polymarket data suggests a 65% probability that the U.S.-Iran conflict will conclude by the end of June. However, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz before then would have severe consequences for the world economy.”

Kuptsikevich emphasized that this climate of uncertainty will continue to challenge gold’s momentum.

“The turmoil in the Middle East is putting pressure on gold prices, especially as central banks are expected to raise interest rates to combat inflation driven by higher oil costs,” he explained. “This approach may be shortsighted, as surging fuel prices are a shock to consumers and could soon impact the broader economy, potentially prompting central banks to ease policy rather than tighten it. For now, though, central banks remain focused on inflation. We are watching the $4,200 level as a medium-term target. A drop to this point would not necessarily end the uptrend, but a break below could signal a reversal of the three-year rally. A bounce from this support would keep hopes for continued gains alive.”

Nick Cawley, a market analyst at Solomon Global, noted that gold is staging a robust recovery after briefly dipping below $4,100 per ounce during last month’s sharp selloff.

He stressed that the ongoing conflict with Iran remains the primary factor influencing gold’s direction.

“Inflation will continue to be a concern in the near to medium term. Central banks are likely to tighten policy in the coming weeks, but if markets view this as a temporary measure and anticipate rate cuts later in the year, traditional headwinds for gold should be limited,” Cawley said. “The $5,000 per ounce mark is the next significant psychological threshold. A decisive move above this level in the weeks ahead could set the stage for gold to challenge its all-time high from late January.”

Key Levels and Outlook

Lukman Otunuga, Senior Market Analyst at FXTM, is monitoring initial support at $4,600 per ounce, noting that gold will remain highly reactive to inflation concerns and the possibility of higher interest rates as energy costs surge.

“If gold closes below $4,600 on a daily basis, we could see a move down toward $4,450. However, if $4,600 holds as support, prices may rebound toward $4,800,” Otunuga commented.

He also pointed out that gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset could become increasingly important, especially if a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens global economic growth.

“Should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed for an extended period, gold could regain its safe-haven status, even as higher interest rates raise opportunity costs,” he said. “The Federal Reserve faces a difficult balancing act, managing inflation fueled by conflict while also watching for signs of labor market weakness.”

Upcoming Economic Events

With markets closed for Good Friday, the release of the March U.S. nonfarm payrolls report will be a key focus for the following week. Although financial markets are shut, the U.S. government will still publish the employment data, as Easter is not a federal holiday.

In addition to Friday’s jobs report, investors will be watching for updates on the service and manufacturing sectors.

The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting will also be closely reviewed, but the highlight of the week will be the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. The week will wrap up with more inflation data, including the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Key Economic Data to Watch Next Week

• Monday: ISM Services PMI
• Tuesday: U.S. Durable Goods Orders
• Wednesday: Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes
• Thursday: Final Q4 U.S. GDP, U.S. PCE Index
• Friday: U.S. CPI, University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment