USD/JPY Weekly Outlook: Energy in Control as Intervention Risk Lingers

USD/JPY is being driven by energy prices, not rates, with BoJ intervention risk the only meaningful counterweight as pressure builds on Japan’s bond curve. The economic calendar is largely irrelevant in this environment, leaving direction tied to developments in oil and geopolitics. The pair finds itself consolidating near the March highs, with a slight downward bias emerging within the broader long-run uptrend. The correlation matrix below reinforces the dominance of energy markets on movements not only in USD/JPY but broader markets over the past week. A 0.95 correlation with Brent is essentially lockstep, ... (full story)