CryptoQuant says bitcoin rally faces rising profit-taking risk as exchange inflows jump

Bitcoin's recent rally is now facing rising profit-taking risk, with several onchain indicators showing growing signs of selling pressure, according to CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin reached above $76,000 on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since early February. The move was supported by earlier undervaluation, a temporary easing in the U.S.-Iran conflict, and weakness in the U.S. dollar, CryptoQuant said in a Wednesday report written by its head of research, Julio Moreno.

The bitcoin price (BTC) has fallen a bit to $74,800 but is testing the traders' onchain realized price at $76,800, a major bear-market resistance level that has historically capped relief rallies as holders near breakeven are incentivized to sell, capping further upside, Moreno noted.

"This band capped the January 2026 bear market rally precisely at this level before prices reversed lower, and the same dynamic may repeat if selling pressure builds from current levels," Moreno wrote. "The lower band at ~$67,600 now serves as the primary near-term support if the resistance holds."

As the bitcoin price moved higher, exchange inflows increased. Hourly bitcoin inflows rose to around 11,000 BTC, the highest level since late December 2025, Moreno said. This is seen as a near-term warning signal, as investors often move assets to exchanges when preparing to sell.

"In a comparable episode in March 2026, hourly inflows reached 9,000 BTC, with 63% large-deposit concentration, which preceded a short-term price correction," Moreno said.

The increase in exchange inflows is mainly driven by large holders, according to CryptoQuant data. Moreno noted that the mean bitcoin exchange deposit surged to 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since July 2024, driven by large individual deposits to Binance exceeding 1,000 BTC.

"This pattern mirrors dynamics observed in January 2026, when the average deposit peaked at almost 2 BTC ahead of bitcoin’s sharp decline from $100,000 to $60,000," he added.

The share of large deposits also increased sharply. It moved from below 10% to above 40% of total exchange inflows within a few days. "Historically, readings above 40% large-deposit share have coincided with elevated near-term selling pressure," Moreno said.

Profit-taking also has not yet peaked. Daily realized profits stand at around $500 million, below the $1 billion threshold that historically marks a significant profit realization spike in bear markets, Moreno said.

"If bitcoin sustains above $76,000 or pushes higher toward the $76,800 traders’ realized price, daily realized profits could accelerate meaningfully toward and above the $1 billion mark, adding. further selling pressure and increasing the probability of a rally stall or reversal," Moreno concluded.