Expert Shares His Thought On XRP Price Action and the Market

Crypto analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) has identified a recurring signal on XRP’s monthly chart that has appeared twice in the past six years.

Each time it fired, it marked a cycle low. With XRP currently in a corrective phase and fear running through the market, the question now is whether conditions are setting up for a third occurrence.

The Ascending Trend Line 

The anchor of ChartNerd’s analysis is a blue ascending trend line that XRP has respected since 2020. Every major cycle low since that year has printed on this line. In 2020, a COVID-19 liquidation wick touched it.

In 2023, XRP built a double-bottom base on it before a prolonged consolidation period ended with the signal firing and the asset rising to a new cycle peak. The lows touching this line have been progressively higher each time.

ChartNerd estimates the trend line currently sits between $0.70 and $0.90. That range also corresponds to a prior resistance level that has never been retested as support, making it a key area he has tracked for some time.

This signal has fired for $XRP two times in the last 6 years, and both of those were at cycle lows. While fear is being priced in, are we about to be handed a "three is a charm" opportunity? My thoughts on XRP price action and the market. Enjoy XRP family 👍🏻

— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) April 21, 2026

The Weekly Resistance Band

On the weekly chart, XRP lost its bull market support band in October 2025. Since then, every rally into that band has been rejected. The band’s most recent rejection resulted in an approximately 50% correction.

ChartNerd states that while short-term relief is possible between $1.60 and $2.00, the band stands overhead as resistance, and XRP requires a sustained move to shift the structure.

Bitcoin’s Role in the Setup

ChartNerd ties XRP’s outlook directly to Bitcoin. Bitcoin has not yet touched its 200-week SMA, which currently sits around $60,000. In every prior cycle, Bitcoin has tagged this level.

In 2022, it lost it briefly before recovering. He sees Bitcoin’s current structure, with lower high formations beneath its resistance band, as consistent with prior bear market behavior.

He identifies $50,000 as a strong possibility for Bitcoin’s cycle low. If that scenario plays out, he expects XRP to respect its resistance band and continue lower.

Short and Long-Term Views

On the daily time frame, XRP is compressing between descending resistance and ascending support, with an apex approaching in early May. ChartNerd notes that holding above $1.38 could negate further downside. A triangle breakout could target $1.60 to $2.00. Losing ascending support opens the path toward the blue trend line and the $0.70 and $0.90 zone.

ChartNerd’s long-term targets remain ambitious. He cites Fibonacci projections pointing toward $27 for XRP and a comparison to the 2013 to 2017 resistance breakout, after which XRP entered sustained price discovery.