Reuters poll: Economists see ECB on hold in April, June hike odds rise

The latest Reuters surveys highlight a gradual shift toward tighter monetary policy expectations in the Eurozone, with a more pronounced tightening bias than previously anticipated.

According to the poll, 84 out of 85 economists expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep its deposit rate unchanged at 2% at the April meeting, pointing to an almost unanimous consensus for a short-term hold.

However, expectations evolve for the following meetings, as 44 of the 85 economists now anticipate a rate hike to 2.25% as early as June. This marks a shift compared to late March, when 38 of 60 economists surveyed expected no change through 2026.

Beyond the immediate horizon, tightening expectations are strengthening significantly. The survey shows that 50 out of 85 economists expect at least one rate hike this year, compared to just 21 out of 60 in the previous poll. This change reflects a repositioning of the consensus toward a potentially more restrictive monetary policy stance over the medium term.

These results reflect ongoing uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook in the Eurozone and suggest that the ECB may maintain a cautious stance in the near term, while keeping the door open to further policy adjustments should inflationary pressures persist.