Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggles below medium-term SMAs, bearish tone intact

Silver (XAG/USD) trades flat on Friday, lacking clear direction as upside remains capped by Oil-driven inflation linked to ongoing US-Iran tensions, which have raised expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment.

At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $75.52 after hitting an intraday low of $73.95, down over 5% so far this week, pressured by a stronger US Dollar (USD) and firm Treasury yields, as stalled US-Iran peace talks and rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz push Oil prices higher.

Price action remains driven by US-Iran headlines and interest rate expectations, with the current geopolitical backdrop keeping Silver tilted to the downside in the near term, while technical indicators also point to downside pressure.

In the daily chart, XAG/USD remains in a bearish near-term stance as it holds below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $78 and the 100-day SMA at $79, keeping the recent rebound capped beneath these medium-term trend gauges.

The 200-day SMA at $62 stays well below the price and acts as a broader bullish floor, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47 sits just under the neutral 50 line, hinting at growing downside pressure.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) with a marginally positive histogram, suggesting vulnerable upside momentum as long as price trades below the clustered short- and medium-term averages.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 50-day SMA around $78, followed by a stronger barrier at the 100-day SMA near $79, where a daily close above would be needed to ease the current downside bias and open the way to a more constructive recovery.

On the downside, the immediate focus is on how spot behaves around the $75-$74 area as a short-term pivot; a sustained break lower would expose progressively lower levels toward the 200-day SMA at $62, which remains the key longer-term support zone guarding against a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)