GBP/USD: Retail data underpins modest upside – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that stronger-than-expected United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales, driven largely by fuel purchases, have supported the Pound (GBP), though broader UK data still point to a softer growth outlook. Short-term GBP/USD technicals are described as neutral to bullish, with a developing base pattern and clearly defined support and upside levels that could guide near-term price action.

Pound supported by data and pattern

"UK Retail Sales rose a stronger than expected 0.7% in March, largely reflecting purchases of fuel as prices rose in response to conflict in the Middle East."

"While UK data reports overall have been constructive, the Bank of England’s “Decision Maker Panel” survey of UK businesses also released today points a relatively soft picture for growth ahead. However, inflation expectations continue to nudge higher (nearing 4% and the highest since late 2023)."

"Neutral/bullish—Intraday price gains in Cable suggest some upward momentum is developing after the pound formed a base (via a bullish “morning star” pattern) on the intraday chart earlier. Support is 1.3450/60. Gains through 1.3495/00 may extend to 1.3555."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)