Bitcoin Market Returning To Risk-On? Flow Pulse Surges 136% From March Lows

On-chain data suggests appetite for risk may be returning in the Bitcoin sector as spot to derivatives flows in the market have surged recently.

Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse Has Shot Up

As highlighted by CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr in an X post, the Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse has witnessed sharp increase since the March lows. The “Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse” (IFP) refers to an indicator that keeps track of the total amount of BTC flowing between spot and derivatives exchanges.

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When the value of this metric goes up, it means investors are increasing their derivatives inflow activity. Such a trend suggests that the appetite for speculation is rising in the market.

On the other hand, the indicator observing a drawdown implies the investors may be pulling back on risk as they are transferring a lesser amount of the asset to derivatives platforms.

Now, here is the chart shared by Adler Jr that shows the trend in the 30-day and 90-day simple moving averages (SMAs) of the Bitcoin IFP over the last few years:

The value of the metric seems to have been on the rise in recent weeks | Source: @AxelAdlerJr on X

From the graph, it’s visible that the Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse saw its SMAs decline during 2025 and the first couple of months of 2026. This implies that investors were taking a risk-off approach to the digital asset. Interestingly, this lack of interest in speculative activity also maintained even through the bull run to the new all-time high (ATH) that took place last year.

Recently, however, a reversal of trend has occurred, with the IFP SMAs turning back up. “Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse is up 136% from March lows,” noted the analyst. This surge naturally indicates that derivatives inflows are now rising. “Flow regime is shifting back to risk-on,” said Adler Jr.

In the past, new bull cycles have tended to start when the market has leaned into speculative activity, but it only remains to be seen whether this signal in the IFP will hold or if it’s only a temporary deviation.

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In some other news, the digital asset sector as a whole has seen a flip in capital netflows recently, as analyst Ali Martinez has pointed out in an X post.

How the netflow related to the digital asset sector has changed over the last few months | Source: @alicharts on X

As displayed in the chart, the combined monthly netflows into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the stablecoins have surged to a positive value of $3 billion. “This represents the first positive net capital inflow we have seen since December, marking a significant shift in market momentum,” explained Martinez.

BTC Price

Bitcoin has retraced from its high above $79,000 as its price has dropped to $75,800.