Oil: UAE exit reshapes supply outlook – Commerzbank

1. Global markets broadly declined last week. Silver (-9.0%), ETH (-8.5%), WTI crude oil (-6.1%), and BTC (-6.0%) led the losses, while only natural gas (+1.1%), the U.S. Dollar Index (+0.3%), and the Japanese yen (+0.3%) posted gains. Overall market sentiment shifted toward risk aversion, with safe-haven assets outperforming. 2. This issue examines Strategy's (MSTR) capital structure and the valuation framework for STRC. STRC currently trades at $75 (a 25% discount to par) with a 15.33% current yield, compared with a 2.56% USDT financing rate on Bitget, creating a 12.77 percentage point carry spread. A 1x financing strategy (2x gross leverage) delivers an estimated 28.1% annual net carry yield. June 30 is the ex-dividend date, and Bitget supports rSTRC collateralized lending within the same account. 3. Continued capital inflows into AI, recent net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, and expectations of ongoing Federal Reserve quantitative tightening suggest the crypto market may be entering a medium-term range-bound phase. A backtest covering July 2022 to September 2023 (during which BTC returned 28.4%) evaluated 25 quantitative strategies. Only Net Flow Trend outperformed Buy & Hold, returning 32.1% with a maximum drawdown of 8.06%, while 13 strategies generated negative returns. This week's focus: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate will both be released on Thursday (July 2), with the unemployment rate currently at 4.3%, near a two-year high. Nike (NKE) reports earnings after the close on June 30. Key assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, MSTR, and rSTRC.