FOMC Decision Collides With 4 AI Mega-Cap Earnings, Setting Bitcoin’s Next Move

The Federal Reserves interest rate decision is in focus today, alongside Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta report first-quarter (Q1) earnings after the close. Combined, the events layer monetary policy and the AI capex debate onto a single window that crypto traders cannot ignore. Bitcoin (BTC) trades near short-term support as Wall Street braces for Chair Jerome Powells press conference and a combined 2026 AI infrastructure spending guidance approaching $600 billion from the four mega-caps. Powells Final Hold and What It Means for Bitcoin The FOMC is expected to keep its target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, the third consecutive hold. Without a dot plot or Summary of Economic Projections, every line in Powells statement carries weight through June. Interest Rate Probabilities Ahead of Powells Final FOMC. Bitcoin has historically reacted more to Powells framing than the rate decision itself. Recent FOMC minutes already pushed cut expectations into mid-2026. If Powell leans hawkish on inflation, risk assets including Bitcoin face renewed pressure. A more balanced acknowledgment of growth risks could ease selling and lift altcoins. AI Mega-Cap Earnings Test the Crypto Risk Trade After the close, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta report Q1 results. The four companies are guiding toward roughly $600 billion in combined 2026 capex. Most goes to AI data centers, chips, and power. Big Tech Earnings Week Ahead!Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon release Q1 figures this week.$BTC correlation with Nasdaq 100 has climbed to 0.52 in 2025, with one analyst noting it hit 0.75 in January 2026.AI capex commentary from these giants could trigger significant Indeed, investors want one answer. Is cloud revenue growing fast enough to justify the spend? Microsofts Azure, Amazons AWS, and Google Cloud growth rates will drive equities, and crypto tends to follow these earnings cycles closely. The market could swing heavily as the likes of Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft report and investors dial into CAPEX plans, free cash flow projections, and the pay-offs from AI, Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com told BeInCrypto. A January selloff in Microsoft on AI capex worries briefly dragged Bitcoin near $83,460. The two narratives now move together more often than not. Microsoft -$440B in one day. Second largest single-stock loss everCrypto getting blamed for volatility. Meanwhile: MSFT loses 22X more in 24h. This is multi-asset deleveraging: Tech (MSFT -11%) Metals (gold -13%, silver -15%) Crypto (BTC -5%) Everything selling, said one analyst at the time. AI-themed tokens including Bittensor (TAO), Render (RNDR), and Fetch.ai (FET) often track sentiment in the broader AI complex. A steady Fed paired with strong AI guidance and clean cloud beats would support risk appetite. Bitcoin could reclaim its recent range, potentially breaking and holding above $80,000. Bitcoin Price Performance. Disappointing capex commentary or hawkish surprises could trigger a swift unwind in both equities and the altcoin AI cohort.