NVIDIA overvalued. Not a buy before $110 at least.
By:TradingView
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NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been trading within a 10-year Channel Up that displays some very distinct characteristics. It's Legs (both Bullish and Bearish) are highly cyclical, holding a strong symmetry among them.
And based on the Sine Waves, we can see that following the 2018 and 2022 Cycle Tops, it is now 2026's turn to give a Cycle peak and start a long-term correction (Bearish Leg), practically a Bear Cycle.
We can technically claim that since the October 2025 High, the market turned sideways on a wide range consolidation and that has been the end of the 2023-2025 Bull Cycle (Bullish Leg). The 1M RSI pattern confirms that as after it has historically made a second touch on the Lower Highs Zone (red circles), the market didn't give much room for the price to rise further.
Basically the current Double Top situation resembles the September 2018 High. The 1M RSI is exactly on the overbought limit (70.00) similar to both October 2018 and January 2022 (blue circles). What followed on both occasions was a strong drop to the 42.00 where it bottomed and NVIDIA turned into a long-term Buy Opportunity again.
Based on the previous Bearish Legs, the price bottomed (coinciding with the 1M RSI bottom), took place either extremely close (Dec 2018) or marginally below (Oct 2022) the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The same stands for the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
Right now the 1W MA200 is considerably above the 0.382 Fib, so we expect that to be tested at least before the market bottoms. Based on its current trajectory, contact at $110 is very likely and that's our long-term Target. Notice that still, that would be considerably above both the 0.382 Fib and a -57.77% drop, which was the 2018 % decline (lower than the -68.77% of 2022).
It has to be made clear though at this point that if the 1M RSI touches the 42.00 Support first (before $110.00), then NVIDIA turns into a long-term buy opportunity, as mentioned, regardless of the price at the time.
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And based on the Sine Waves, we can see that following the 2018 and 2022 Cycle Tops, it is now 2026's turn to give a Cycle peak and start a long-term correction (Bearish Leg), practically a Bear Cycle.
We can technically claim that since the October 2025 High, the market turned sideways on a wide range consolidation and that has been the end of the 2023-2025 Bull Cycle (Bullish Leg). The 1M RSI pattern confirms that as after it has historically made a second touch on the Lower Highs Zone (red circles), the market didn't give much room for the price to rise further.
Basically the current Double Top situation resembles the September 2018 High. The 1M RSI is exactly on the overbought limit (70.00) similar to both October 2018 and January 2022 (blue circles). What followed on both occasions was a strong drop to the 42.00 where it bottomed and NVIDIA turned into a long-term Buy Opportunity again.
Based on the previous Bearish Legs, the price bottomed (coinciding with the 1M RSI bottom), took place either extremely close (Dec 2018) or marginally below (Oct 2022) the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The same stands for the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.
Right now the 1W MA200 is considerably above the 0.382 Fib, so we expect that to be tested at least before the market bottoms. Based on its current trajectory, contact at $110 is very likely and that's our long-term Target. Notice that still, that would be considerably above both the 0.382 Fib and a -57.77% drop, which was the 2018 % decline (lower than the -68.77% of 2022).
It has to be made clear though at this point that if the 1M RSI touches the 42.00 Support first (before $110.00), then NVIDIA turns into a long-term buy opportunity, as mentioned, regardless of the price at the time.
---
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
---
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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