China’s imports of refined copper are set to rise in the second quarter of this year, driven by strong demand and potentially lower domestic output because of smelter maintenance, analysts and traders said.
Copper demand in the world’s biggest consumer of the metal used in power lines and for wiring in electric vehicles has gained momentum thanks to expanding grid investment and growing EV sales, analysts said.
Higher Chinese imports could support benchmark prices that on Friday climbed to their highest since January 29, when they hit a record $14,527.50.
Chinese power grid investments from January to March rose by 37% from a year earlier, state media reported in April, while the Iran War is also powering a surge of interest in electric vehicles in China and the wider region.
Domestic refined copper supply is likely poised to drop in the second quarter. In a note on Friday, analysts at consultancy Shanghai Metals Market said smelter maintenance this quarter is forecast to cut refined metal output.
“China returned from the Lunar New Year with a less price-sensitive robust demand, driving the largest and fastest drawdown in onshore inventories … cathode imports will rise ahead,” Nicholas Snowdon, head of metals and mining research at Mercuria, said last week at the LME week conference in Hong Kong.
“The resurgent demand is driven by strong demand from the electrification sectors, on the grid in particular.”
On Friday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper stockpiles fell 5.6% from last week to 181,333 metric tons, the lowest since January.
Signs of the rising imports are already starting to be seen. China’s intake of refined copper in April climbed by 9% from March to 452,000 tons, the highest since September, customs data released on Saturday showed.
“Downstream orders have picked up since March,” Li Ye, deputy general manager at trader Eagle Metal, said last week on the sidelines of the LME Week conference, adding imports in April rose by a triple digit percentage from March.
“Last month’s volume alone is higher than the total in the first three months,” she said.
(By Amy Lv, Dylan Duan and Lewis Jackson)
