New on Polymarket: “Number of Fed Rate Hikes in 2026”

Monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event on "the number of Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026."

Looking at the interest rate path, the market is currently trading two entirely different macro narratives: one view believes the US economy will enter a growth slowdown cycle in 2026, with the Federal Reserve remaining on hold or even resuming rate cuts; the other view suggests that if inflation resurges or long-term inflation expectations get out of control, the Federal Reserve may be forced to restart the rate hike cycle. Therefore, the high pricing around "3 to 4 rate hikes" essentially reflects the market's reassessment of inflation stickiness and economic resilience for the coming year, rather than consensus on a single path.

Bank of America has been the first to switch to a more hawkish interest rate path forecast. BofA Global Research now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points each in September, October, and December 2026, for a total increase of 75 basis points throughout the year, pushing the federal funds target range to 4.25%—4.50%. This judgment marks a clear upward revision from its previous expectation of "holding rates steady for the year," mainly based on the US labor market remaining resilient, the uneven progress of inflation easing, and the possibility that the Federal Reserve's policy response function may lean more hawkish under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. In contrast, Deutsche Bank also expects the Federal Reserve to start raising rates in September, but forecasts a total increase of 50 basis points for the year, showing that major Wall Street institutions are re-evaluating US interest rate upside risks for 2026.

Keep watching the prediction market: see the changes before the pricing.