XRP is ending June near the psychological $1 mark, closing a disastrous first half of the year. After falling 27.1% in the first quarter, the drawdown in the second quarter stands at 22.4%. The current month alone has taken 22.2% from the asset's value.
Trading is now taking place in the $1.03–$1.04 range, where the chart has moved close to a critical support level. At the same time, the third quarter officially begins on July 1. For XRP, this transition has historically meant a shift in the global trend.
Year-to-year XRP price dynamics on a daily price chart with RSI attached, Source:
TradingView
June is statistically the worst month of the year for XRP, with an average return of -6.41%, and the current plunge fully fits into this tendency. However, with the move into July, historical indicators shift in favor of buyers:
- July statistics: The average monthly return is +10.2%, while the median return is +10.8%. A positive July close was recorded in 2023 and 2025.
- Quarterly trend: The median Q3 return stands at +27.1%, the best result among all four quarters of the year, while the previous three years saw this period close exclusively in the green.
Two consecutive losing quarters in XRP's history have usually led to complete seller exhaustion. The RSI technical indicator on the daily chart has already formed a bullish divergence, pointing to weakness among bears.
In this environment, a return to average values could trigger a relief rebound of 23–25%, targeting the $1.39–$1.40 area for XRP.
How California compliance could impact XRP price
The main trigger at the start of the month is the July 1 deadline, by which Ripple must confirm compliance with California's Digital Financial Assets Law requirements for the legal operation of custodial services and the RLUSD stablecoin. Successful compliance would coincide with the moment when short-term sellers have fully exhausted their momentum and buyers have started defending liquidity at the $1 level.
The current compression of the price range sets a clear condition for the market: either accumulated buying volume triggers an impulsive breakout from the oversold zone, or a break below psychological support opens the door to a long-term decline below $1 for XRP.
