News

Golden Ten Data, March 18 — According to scenario analysis by institutional models, the global adoption of electric vehicles will reduce oil consumption by 2.3 million barrels per day in 2025. Analyst Claudio Lubis stated that as more drivers switch to electric vehicles, the savings in fossil fuels are expected to increase year by year for the remainder of this decade. It is projected that by 2030, under an economic transition scenario (where governments deploy economically viable technologies rather than policies mainly driven by climate targets), the daily reduction in oil consumption could more than double, reaching 5.25 million barrels. Due to the rapid adoption of electric motorcycles (especially in developing countries), two- and three-wheeled vehicles currently account for the majority of the reduction in road fuel consumption. As electric vehicles become more widespread, it is expected that in the latter part of this decade, electric vehicles will further reduce oil demand. A report by think tank Ember found that in 2025, electric vehicles will reduce oil consumption by 1.7 million barrels per day. Ember analyst Walter stated that the cost competitiveness of electric vehicles compared to gasoline vehicles is increasing, and oil price volatility means that for countries wishing to avoid future shocks, choosing electric vehicles is a wise move.

Golden Ten Data reported on March 18 that according to estimates by Daiwa Securities, if crude oil prices trade around $90 per barrel, Japan's net import value will increase by approximately 8.1 trillion yen. The estimate shows that this figure rises to 11.4 trillion yen at $100 per barrel, and if the price reaches $120 per barrel, it will increase to 17.8 trillion yen. A deepening trade deficit may further pressure the yen, leading to a further rise in import costs and ultimately eroding corporate profits.

Golden Ten Data reported on March 18 that Takeshi Minami, an economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, stated that the impact of the Middle East conflict and the resulting surge in oil prices on the Japanese economy is expected to begin to emerge in late March. As the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been closed, the sharp decline in oil imports is expected to drag down trade and industrial production. Despite the Japanese government's efforts to alleviate the burden, rising energy prices may still suppress private consumption.