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Galaxy Research pointed out that Bitcoin is currently down about 49% from the cycle high, a drop smaller than the 70% to 90% levels seen in previous cycles. (Cointelegraph)

At the same time, hedge funds have increased their net short positions across various maturities of US Treasury futures. During the reporting period, asset management companies' combined net long positions on Treasury futures, ranging from 10-year contracts to ultra-long-term contracts, rose by $20.2 million/DV01. Most of the net additions were concentrated in long-term Treasury futures, with net long increases of approximately $9 million/DV01. Hedge funds displayed the strongest bearish sentiment toward 10-year Treasury futures that week, increasing their net short positions by $6.5 million/DV01; meanwhile, net short positions on long-term Treasury futures also grew by nearly $4 million/DV01.Note: DV01 refers to the amount by which the value of a bond or bond derivative position changes when Treasury yields move by 1 basis point. It is a common measure of interest rate risk. The differing holding directions between the two types of institutions also reflect a clear divergence in market expectations for the future trajectory of US Treasuries.

This change is likely to drive Dutch TTF natural gas prices higher in the fourth quarter of 2026, approaching 50 euros per megawatt-hour. This expected level is higher than the previous forecast of 40 euros per megawatt-hour provided by the institution.