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格隆汇 March 4｜UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri is highly optimistic about Micron's outlook, predicting that Micron's EPS for the calendar year 2027 could challenge $85, far above the market's average expectation of $48. Arcuri pointed out that, in response to the tight memory supply caused by artificial intelligence (AI) demand, manufacturers such as Micron have successively raised component prices. He believes that Micron may actively negotiate new long-term agreements based on this trend. Although this will give up some of the short-term price increase space, these agreements should help support more robust revenue and profits in the coming years. Arcuri further analyzed that the pricing momentum for DRAM and NAND continues to strengthen, and the supply shortage may persist until 2028.

（1）Analysis Reason: The US Dollar Index remains strong, exerting pressure on gold prices, but the safe-haven demand brought by the Middle East situation still exists, limiting the depth of gold's pullback. Rising oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations, making the market more cautious about the timing of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts. Short-term interest rate expectations are hawkish, imposing certain constraints on gold. From a technical perspective, after surging, gold has entered a high-level consolidation phase. The daily chart is still running above the main moving average system, and the medium-term trend has not been damaged. Short-term momentum has slowed somewhat, but no trend reversal signals have appeared, overall belonging to a strong consolidation pattern.（2）Key Focus: US Treasury yields, US Dollar Index, geopolitical situation（3）Resistance: 5200, 5250, 5300（4）Support: 5100, 5050, 5000;

（1）Analysis Reason: The transportation risk in the Strait of Hormuz remains the core variable in current crude oil pricing. About one-fifth of global seaborne crude oil must pass through this channel, and any shipping restrictions will amplify supply uncertainty, making it difficult for market risk premiums to dissipate quickly. Meanwhile, there are no clear signs of easing geopolitical tensions, and short-term capital still favors a bullish structure. From the market perspective, WTI previously broke through the consolidation range and stabilized above $75, with daily moving averages showing a bullish alignment and the trend structure remaining intact. Although inventory data has increased temporarily, exerting some pressure on prices, the downside is expected to be relatively limited as long as supply risks are unresolved.（2）Key Focus: Geopolitical situation, inventory data, US Dollar Index（3）Resistance: 75.50, 76.60, 78.00（4）Support: 74.00, 73.30, 72.00