USD/THB: Baht faces strain from energy shock – Commerzbank

Thai Baht Faces Pressure Amid Trade Deficit and Rising Energy Costs

According to Commerzbank economists Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim, the USD/THB exchange rate has climbed to 32.65, influenced by Thailand’s ongoing trade deficit and increasing global energy prices. The Thai Baht (THB) has lagged behind other regional currencies, depreciating by 3.5% against the US Dollar so far this year, compared to an average decline of 1.3% for Asian currencies excluding Japan. Weaker export performance and elevated oil prices continue to challenge the future prospects of the Baht.

Baht Lags Behind Other Asian Currencies

The USD/THB pair advanced by 0.3% to reach 32.65 yesterday, extending a steady upward trend that began in March as global energy costs soared and gold prices eased. Since the start of the year, the Baht has weakened by 3.5% against the Dollar, a sharper drop than the average 1.3% decline seen among other Asian currencies (excluding Japan).

Exports and Imports: Mixed Signals

Thailand’s exports in February contracted by 9.9% year-on-year, a larger decrease than the 17.0% decline anticipated by Bloomberg and a slowdown from January’s 24.4% drop, marking the slowest growth in three months. The Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO) notes that export growth faces both upside and downside risks in the coming months.

On the import side, there was a significant 31.8% year-on-year surge in February, surpassing Bloomberg’s 25.0% forecast and up from 29.4% in January—the strongest growth since December 2021. This rebound was attributed to improved business confidence following political stabilization in late 2025. Imports of capital goods soared by 49.3% (up from 29.5% in January), while intermediate goods imports jumped 53.3% (previously 20.3%), the fastest pace since August 2021. Despite these increases, the trade balance remained unexpectedly negative at around -USD2.8 billion (Bloomberg consensus: +USD1.0 billion), compared to a -USD3.3 billion deficit in January.

Uncertain Export Outlook

The TPSO highlighted that the direction of exports will depend on the ongoing effects of global conflicts and whether US buyers accelerate purchases ahead of a 10% global tariff set to expire in July. The Ministry of Commerce projects that export growth in 2026 could range widely from a 3.1% contraction to a 1.1% increase, with a reassessment scheduled for April.