Oil Price Today (March 31): Oil falls 1% to near $111/bbl after reports of Trump’s push to end war. What lies ahead?

EconomicTimes2026/03/31 04:18

By:EconomicTimes

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Oil prices cooled slightly on Tuesday after their skyrocketing rally, with Brent crude futures dropping over 1% to near the $111 per barrel mark following a report that US President Donald Trump is willing to end the war with Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

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Trump told his aides that he is willing to end the war even if a large part of the operations through the Strait of Hormuz remains set to open at a later date, the Wall Street Journal ‌reported on Monday, citing administration officials.

Brent crude futures fell to $111 per barrel, a day after reaching their highest levels since March 19. WTI Crude, meanwhile, dropped to $102 per barrel today, as seen at around 8 am IST. This led to a spike in GIFT Nifty, as investors hoped for some relief on Dalal Street after the incessant selloff.

All is well?

Despite the optimism, some caution is warranted. The war, which began earlier this month with US-Israeli strikes killing Iran’s former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khammenei and resulting in massive retaliation from Tehran, has spread across the Middle East.

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Yemeni Houthis launched their first attacks on ⁠Israel over ‌the weekend, widening the ongoing war and adding to inflation woes. Trump warned the US would obliterate Iran's energy plants and oil wells if it does not open the Strait of Hormuz. This comes as Iran attacked and set ablaze a fully loaded crude oil tanker off Dubai on Monday.

Thousands of soldiers from the US Army's elite 82nd Airborne Division have started arriving in the Middle East, Reuters reported, adding that this is part of a reinforcement that would expand Trump's options to include the deployment of forces inside Iranian territory, even as he pursues talks with Tehran.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt later said Trump wanted to reach a deal with Tehran before an April 6 deadline he set last week after extending an earlier deadline he had set for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz. Leavitt said US’ talks with Iran were progressing, adding that what Tehran says publicly differs from what it tells US officials in private.

What lies ahead?

Macquarie has warned that crude prices could surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel if the Iran conflict drags into mid-year and keeps the vital Strait of Hormuz shut. “If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy a historically large amount of global oil demand,” the Macquarie analysts said in the March 27 report, as reported by Bloomberg. “The timing of the re-opening of the straits, and physical damage to energy infrastructure, is the main determinant of the longer-term impact on commodities,” it added.

Ambit Institutional Equities, in its report, said that even if geopolitical tensions cool off, oil prices will remain elevated, with $80 being the new normal for Brent due to infrastructure damage, geopolitical risk premiums, and inventory restocking.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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Oil Price Today (March 31): Oil falls 1% to near $111/bbl after reports of Trump’s push to end war. What lies ahead?

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