TMC's One-Year Permit Schedule May Narrow the Difference Between $4.35 and $10.60 — Yet Success Depends Entirely on Implementation

TMC Stock: Balancing Potential and Uncertainty

Investors are closely monitoring TMC, as its 12-month price target of $10.60 suggests substantial upside compared to the current share price near $4.35. However, the stock has dropped 56% from its peak over the past year, highlighting the considerable challenges and risks involved in reaching that target. This sharp contrast between projected value and present performance underscores the tension between optimism and execution risk.

Key Milestone: Bankable Feasibility Study

The most important near-term event is the anticipated completion of the Bankable Feasibility Study by year-end. This study is pivotal—it will determine whether TMC can secure the large-scale funding needed to transition from exploration to commercial mining. Regulatory progress has been made, as shown by NOAA’s recent finding of substantial compliance, but this approval marks only the beginning. The real challenge is whether TMC can turn regulatory clearance into a viable, financeable project within the next year.

Permit Timeline and Execution Risks

A commercial recovery permit could be granted in less than 12 months, thanks to streamlined NOAA rules. Management expects to obtain this permit within a year and to commission the system by the fourth quarter of 2027. Despite these plans, the stock has remained flat even as the broader market rallies, indicating investor doubts about TMC’s ability to meet these milestones without setbacks. While the market anticipates the possibility of a permit, it remains cautious about flawless execution.

Strategy Backtest: Absolute Momentum Long-only

• Entry Criteria: Buy TMC when the 252-day rate of change is positive and the closing price is above the 200-day moving average.
• Exit Criteria: Sell when the closing price falls below the 200-day moving average, after 20 trading days, or if a take-profit (+8%) or stop-loss (−4%) is triggered.
• Backtest Period: April 12, 2024 – April 11, 2026

Backtest Performance Metrics

• Total Return: 21.74%
• Annualized Return: 28.13%
• Maximum Drawdown: 53.31%
• Profit-Loss Ratio: 1.52
• Total Trades: 56
• Winning Trades: 23
• Losing Trades: 33
• Win Rate: 41.07%
• Average Hold Days: 2.84
• Max Consecutive Losses: 8
• Average Win Return: 13.15%
• Average Loss Return: 7.56%
• Largest Single Gain: 28.8%
• Largest Single Loss: 17.34%

Financial Pressure: Navigating Pre-Revenue Challenges

Market doubts about TMC’s financial stability are justified. The company is experiencing significant losses, reporting a net loss of $184.4 million last quarter alone. These losses are primarily due to ongoing exploration and permitting costs, and will persist until commercial operations begin. While the stock’s valuation reflects hopes for future profitability, the current reality is one of mounting expenses.

To secure its future, TMC is focused on completing the Bankable Feasibility Study by late 2026—a crucial step for attracting the necessary funding to build its processing hub and start production. The acquisition of a 1,466-acre facility at the Port of Brownsville is intended to strengthen its financing prospects, but this ambitious expansion is putting direct strain on the company’s balance sheet.

Recently, TMC filed shelf registrations for up to 21.1 million shares, signaling the need for additional capital following a full-year loss of nearly $320 million in 2025. While such filings are common for companies planning future offerings, the timing highlights the urgency. This move points to the likelihood of further equity raises, which could dilute existing shareholders’ stakes as TMC seeks to fund its lengthy development timeline.

In summary, TMC’s financial strain is both severe and ongoing. While the market sees potential in regulatory progress and future mining operations, it also recognizes the high costs involved. The recent shelf filing is a practical step to address funding needs, but it emphasizes the company’s reliance on future capital markets. Until the feasibility study is finished and financing is secured, pre-revenue losses will continue to weigh heavily, making the next 12 months especially critical.

Upcoming Catalysts and Risks: The Road Ahead

The coming year will be a crucial test for TMC, as execution must match expectations. The next major event is the earnings report on May 13, 2026, where investors will focus on cash burn and management’s progress toward the feasibility study deadline. Any delays or rising costs could widen the gap between expectations and reality, while positive updates may bolster confidence in the stock’s target price.

The main risk remains operational execution. TMC must successfully navigate the consolidated permit process, now expedited by new NOAA regulations, and secure the Brownsville processing hub. Both efforts are central to the investment case. Any setbacks—whether permit delays or issues with the hub—would threaten the feasibility study’s completion and the commercial timeline. The recent shelf registration for 21.1 million shares is a reminder that funding is not guaranteed and may come at the cost of dilution.

Ultimately, the $10.60 price target reflects optimism about timely completion of the feasibility study and subsequent financing. However, the current share price around $4.35 indicates the market is factoring in substantial risk. For the target to become realistic, TMC must demonstrate clear progress in the upcoming quarters. Without tangible results, the gap between present value and future promises will only grow.