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On April 17, Ark Invest stated in its Q1 2026 Bitcoin Quarterly Report that the total holdings of US Bitcoin spot ETFs exhibited remarkable resilience, fluctuating between 1.26 million and 1.31 million BTC. Despite a maximum drawdown of 23% in Bitcoin prices, ETF holders showed no significant signs of capitulation. As of the end of March, the total ETF holdings were approximately 1.29 million BTC, nearly unchanged from the beginning of the quarter. This stability in holdings indicates that institutional investors' confidence remains strong even in the face of severe downward volatility.

According to Polymarket data, the probability of BTC reaching $80,000 in April is 32%, with a trading volume for this prediction of approximately $27.9 million; the probability of falling below $65,000 is 14%. For ETH, the probability of reaching $2,600 in April is 33%, with a trading volume for this prediction of approximately $6.65 million; the probability of dropping below $2,000 is 18%. The above predictions are settled based on the highest price of the BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT 1-minute candlestick on a certain exchange, and the settlement time is 11:59 on May 1 (UTC+8).

Buying bonds amid missile strikes between Iran and the United States has always been a high-risk decision. It requires investors to believe that, against a backdrop in which rising government borrowing costs are pushing overall yields higher, these yield increases are enough to hedge against long-term energy shocks and inflation threats. Now, this strategy of locking in higher yields is beginning to pay off for portfolio managers on both sides of the Atlantic. Euro-denominated investment-grade bond indexes are heading for their best monthly performance in more than a year, while eurozone junk bonds have posted their largest gains since 2023. The U.S. market has shown a similar turnaround from negative to positive performance.