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Glonghui, April 17｜According to Nikkei Chinese, the global stock market has rebounded to levels seen before the late February US-Iran military conflict, with the US stock market leading the rally. The Nasdaq Composite Index set a new record high on April 15, the S&P 500 also reached a new high after about two and a half months, and the MSCI World Index simultaneously refreshed its peak. This round of gains was driven by multiple factors: expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire eased market concerns over rising oil prices; prior share price corrections alleviated valuation pressures, funds concentrated in AI and semiconductor sectors that are less affected by geopolitical conflict; robust Q1 earnings reports from US companies, with S&P 500 constituents’ earnings per share expected to increase by 8% year-on-year in the next twelve months, and the IMF's economic outlook of “early crisis resolution” also boosted confidence. However, the market has not fully returned to its pre-crisis state, with the current rebound showing significant structural disparity. Sectors such as consumer and raw materials face high costs and subdued supply chain pressure expectations, with short-term capital mainly chasing gains and long-term institutional investors participating less actively. Some analysts believe that oil prices remain elevated, the repair of supply chains through the Strait of Hormuz is slow, and combined with inflation and potential rate hike risks, the sustainability of this US-led global rally is in doubt, and there is a risk of an overheated correction in the short term. Going forward, attention needs to be paid to oil price declines and progress in supply chain normalization. The chief market strategist at US securities company MillerTabak sounded a note of caution about the optimistic trend, saying, “Unlike the V-shaped rebound and sustained upward trend after 2025 (following the announcement of Trump tariffs), strong rallies may not be easy to sustain.”

BlockBeats News, April 17th, according to DefiLlama data, Hyperliquid yesterday earned $3.27 million, reaching a new high since February 7th. It is only behind Tether ($16.41 million) and Circle ($6.77 million).

David Ng, a Kuala Lumpur-based trader, pointed out that the decline in palm oil futures was directly attributed to the spillover effect from weakness in the crude oil market. The drop in energy prices has undermined expectations for alternative demand for biodiesel feedstock, causing the price link between vegetable oils and fossil energy to tighten once again.Recent weakening in export estimate data has served as a second blow. The fading demand-side signals, resonating with the drag from crude oil supply, forced the June delivery contract down by 44 ringgit to 4,451 ringgit per ton. Ng identifies 4,400 ringgit as a key support level, while 4,580 ringgit acts as the resistance ceiling above.Current prices are within a technically sensitive range. If crude oil loses further ground due to diplomatic developments over the weekend impacting market psychology, palm oil may test the 4,000 ringgit round-number support. On the other hand, any renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz or lower-than-expected Southeast Asian output could trigger a rapid rebound toward resistance levels.It is necessary to be alert to structural divergences in the vegetable oil market. Although crude oil is dictating short-term direction, the palm oil supply-demand balance is entering a seasonal output increase period. If export data does not recover in tandem, even if energy prices stabilize, the endogenous pressure of inventory accumulation is likely to cap the extent of any rebound.